By The Oracle
We recently passed the halfway point of the 2023 Canterbury Park live racing season. Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far in 2023. The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.
Favorites are winning 48% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2023. This is nine percentage points higher than the national average over the past three months, and five percentage points above the first half results in the 2022 Canterbury meet. A win wager on every thoroughbred favorite at Canterbury so far this meet would have returned $0.98 for every dollar wagered. Even more amazing, place and show betting the favorite returned $1.01 and $1.02 for every dollar wagered, respectively. I can’t say I’ve ever seen anything like this before over such an extended period of time. It seems likely that both the winning favorites percentage and the ROI on those favorites will decline in the second half of the meet as they would move towards historical levels.
Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track. This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 41% rate compared to 54% winning favorites on the dirt. The general rule of thumb that favorites win more often on the main track than on the turf should hold true for the remainder of the meet. The strongest category for winning favorites is the maiden claiming races, where the favorites are winning 58% of the time.
Regarding extreme longshots, there have been only three 20-1 and up winners this year. Big longshots are elusive at Canterbury Park, as 197 horses have gone to post at greater than 20-1 odds with only three winning. That’s a win percentage from that sample of under 2%.
Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings, Harry Hernandez holds a slight lead on Lindey Wade at the halfway point with 32 wins compared to 29 for Wade. But Hernandez is a known commodity by the betting public with an ROI of only 0.65 so far this year. The All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Jermaine Bridgmohan. Jermaine is currently eighth in the standings with 12 wins from 60 mounts (20%), and he is returning $1.10 for every dollar wagered on his mounts. Bridgmohan has been a turf specialist, with 10 of his 12 wins coming on the turf. Bridgmohan’s turf ROI is an impressive $1.58 for every dollar wagered from 39 mounts. For those who may not remember, Jermaine was also last year’s mid-season All-Star performer in similar fashion, as he had a dominant season on the turf with a positive ROI overall. Quite an impressive performance from an ROI perspective by Jermaine Bridgmohan in the first half of the meet!
Joel Berndt currently holds a sizable lead in the trainer standings with 26 wins so far this season. However, like jockey Harry Hernandez, there are no secrets when it comes to Berndt runners and he gets hammered at the windows in nearly every circumstance. Therefore, his ROI is a disappointing 0.59 so far this meet for every dollar wagered. There are a couple of trainers who have really shined from an ROI perspective this meet. Nate Quinonez took over the Robertson barn for a period of time this meet, and won with 12 of 31 starters for an ROI of $1.63 for every dollar wagered. Also, Nevada Litfin has really impressed this meet, winning with 14 of 53 runners and returning $1.57 for every dollar wagered. Litfin has won 12 of his 14 races on the main track, and even popped
with $47 winner in a dirt sprint. Quinonez was strong across all surfaces and class levels, posting winners consistently across all categories. Congratulations to these two trainers for outstanding first half results!
That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective. Good luck in the second half of the meet! As always, good luck when playing the 10% takeout Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers at Canterbury Park.
Bruce Meyer, known as The Oracle, uses database handicapping, uncovering profitable wagering angles. He is a seven-time Canterbury Park Handicapper of the Year.