With nine days of live racing remaining in the 2012 season, favorites are still winning 44% overall in thoroughbred races with an ROI of $0.98 for every dollar wagered. Favorites in dirt sprints are winning 48% of the time (ROI $1.02), favorites in dirt routes are winning 43% (ROI $0.98) and favorites on the turf are winning 33% (ROI $0.87).
Spotlight: Alex Canchari
Last week was quite the wild ride for jockey Alex Canchari. In a season dominated by favorites and low-priced winners, Canchari scored with two huge bombs and finished in the money with several others. Here are the highlights from Canchari’s fantastic week:
• Rajablou (Place at 23-1) – Rajablou had a 2 for 28 career record and was 0 for 6 on the turf, although he did show three in-the-money turf finishes. Trained by Coty Rosin, Rajablou grabbed the early lead but was passed in deep stretch by 5-1 Grandpa George. Rajablou paid $17.60 to place and $12.80 to show.
• Andrea’s Josie (Place at 20-1) – Andrea’s Josie had four prior turf races with her best finish being sixth, beaten four lengths. Canchari kept her near the lead and she ran a game second, beaten a length by the 3/2 favorite Theater of Dreams, but six clear of the third place horse. Andrea’s Josie paid $13.40 to place and $8.20 to show.
• Ming Glo (Win at 27-1) – The very next race, Canchari guided Ming Glo to a one length victory at 27-1 on the turf. Ming Glo, an 8-year-old gelding with a 1 for 59 career record and 0 for 15 turf record, was selected on the Friday pre race show by media personality and Canterbury handicapper Mike Gelfand. Mike correctly pointed out that Ming Glo had competitive turf figures and was a contender in this field. Ming Glo was switching back to his preferred surface after running in several dirt sprints at Prairie Meadows. Ming Glo paid $57.20 to win, $18.80 to place and $6.00 to show.
• Third Rail (Win at 6-1) – Third rail was exiting a third place finish, beaten ¾ of a length at the same distance but was stepping up in class to a higher claiming price. The public sent him off as the fourth choice in an eight horse field and the believers were rewarded. Third Rail paid $15.60 to win, $7.20 to place and $4.80 to show.
• Cherryful Lady (Place at 19-1) – Cherryful Lady had been beaten by a combined 55 lengths in her prior three starts. Her last race was a 19 length defeat on the turf at odds of 40-1. So the public understandably stayed away from this filly even though she had won a dirt sprint earlier in the meet at 16-1. Canchari made a bold, mid race move on Cherryful Lady but came up a length short behind front running 4-1 winner Mane Slick. Cherryful Lady paid $18.00 to place and $7.20 to show.
• Forest Sunrise (Win at 29-1) – This 8-year-old gelding was lightly raced with a solid overall record of 4 wins from 22 lifetime starts. But his last three races he had been well beaten despite showing pretty good early speed. Canchari took this horse right to the front and he proved to be very game on the front end, holding on for a 1 length victory. Forest Sunrise paid $60.20 to win, $25.00 to place and $8.40 to show.
Congratulations if you were holding winning tickets on any of the Canchari longshots from last week! And take a close look at his mounts for the remainder of the meet, perhaps his wild ride will continue.
This blog was written by Canterbury Regular “The Oracle”. The Oracle is a longtime Minnesota race fan that has handicapped Canterbury’s races religiously for more than 20 years. He writes about handicapping and statistical trends in Canterbury’s races.
Photo Credit: Coady Photography