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Week 5 in Review (Stats and Trends)

Weather remained a factor at Canterbury Park as we faced an off track last Thursday and Sunday. However, the public hasn’t blinked as favorites continue a dominating trend of 46% winners and a flat bet profit with favorites of 6% in thoroughbred races.

Despite the high percentage of winning favorites, the Pick 4 paid over $300 for a dollar wager in five of the eight Pick 4 sequences last week. Two of those sequences paid over $1,200 as Pick 4 overlays continue to be the rule, not the exception.

The Track Bias

Front-runners didn’t fare quite as well last week at 5.5 and 6 furlongs due to the off track. The off track is producing wire to wire winners in sprints of 5.5 and 6 furlongs at a national average of 25%. Wire to wire winners at those distances over a fast track are holding very strongly at about 40%.

Trainer Spotlight: Mac Robertson

After a slow stat in May where Robertson only won with 1 of his first 10 starters, Mac has caught fire in June with a 12 for 29 run. Entering the week, he was tied for the lead in the trainer standings with 13 wins from 39 starters and his starters have generated a flat bet profit of 15%. Robertson has been the leading trainer for several years running, so his success is certainly no surprise. He is pretty strong in all categories and it’s pretty tough to find a useful pattern to play against him.

Robertson is a solid 7 for 17 with the favorite (41%) but he shows a slight flat bet loss of 5% in that category. He is batting an outstanding 56% in turf routes (5 for 9) and like last year, that’s where the wagering profits can be found.

It is interesting to note that all of his winners so far this meet have been with 3 or 4-year-old horses. He is 13 for 29 with those ages, and 0 for 10 with his five and six-year-old runners. The sample size may be too small to be meaningful but there it is. Also, Robertson has historically been very strong with two-year-olds so look out when he starts sending his maiden two-year-olds to the track.

This blog was written by Canterbury Regular “The Oracle”. The Oracle is a longtime Minnesota race fan that has handicapped Canterbury’s races religiously for more than 20 years. He writes about handicapping and statistical trends in Canterbury’s races.

Photo Credit: Coady Photography