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Week 3 in Review (Stats & Trends)

We were back on the turf for the first time in 2012, and it didn’t take long for pari-mutuel fireworks to occur as 35-1 shot Wolsfeld Woods rocked the tote board in Race 4 on Friday night. That triggered a Pick 4 payout of $4.415.20 for a $1 wager as the Pick 4 at Canterbury continues to be an excellent betting opportunity. Saturday also produced a giant Pick 4 payoff of $4,301.20 for the sequence of 8-1, 2-1, 4-1 and 7-1. Another huge Pick 4 overlay!

The Track Bias

The Canterbury track bias continues to strongly favor early speed in sprints as nearly half of the races carded at 5.5 and 6 furlongs have been won gate to wire.  The national average is about 25%. Being on or near the lead is a must right now and deep closers in sprints can be eliminated with virtual certainty.

The Odds

Here is a breakdown of the odds of horses and corresponding win percentages. Note the two significant gaps at less than 7/2 and also greater than 9-1.

Odds      Winners      Win %       ROI

0.1-1.4        25/49        51%        $0.97

1.5-3.4        30/101        30%        $0.98

3.5-5.9        11/98        11%        $0.62

6.0-7.9        5/52        10%        $0.79

8.0-9.9        4/43       9%        $0.93

10.0-14.9        1/84        1%       $0.14

15.0-19.9        1/51        2%        $0.34

20.0 and up        2/80        3%        $0.81

Favorites are still doing very well, winning at a 45% clip. Approximately 2 of every 3 races have been won by low-odds, logical contenders. The next range is the key range to generating those big overlay Pick 4 tickets. About 25% of the winners fall in the 7/2 to 9-1 range.  If you can sneak two or three winners into the Pick 4 that are paying at least 7/2 odds it can be a very lucrative ticket. Lastly, as you can see from the above chart, less than 2% of the horses that have gone off at double digit odds this year have actually found the winners circle. It’s deep water but if you must swim, prices in this range are more likely to happen in turf races going forward.

Maiden races continue to be very formful. Twenty one out of twenty three maiden races have been won by a horse at 3-1 odds or lower. The public is in tune with the maiden races at Canterbury Park so far.

Good Luck in Week 4!

This blog was written by Canterbury Regular “The Oracle”. The Oracle is a longtime Minnesota race fan that has handicapped Canterbury’s races religiously for more than 20 years. He writes about handicapping and statistical trends in Canterbury’s races.