The Long Run Part 4: Fishing in the Proper Pool
“The charm of fishing is that it is the pursuit of what is elusive but attainable, a perpetual series of occasions for hope”. – John Buchan, Author The horse was circled in your Racing Form. He had two stars next to his name with a bold YES written next to it. The YES was written […]
The Long Run Part 3: Developing the Game Plan
Thinking about game plan development and the importance of following that plan reminded me of a scene from the TV show Seinfeld where Jerry asks a car rental clerk about his reservation. It didn’t go well: Jerry: I don’t understand, I made a reservation. Do you have my reservation? Clerk: Yes we do, unfortunately we […]
The Long Run Part 2: Bankroll and Wager Size
“Everyone has a game plan until they get punched in the mouth”- Mike Tyson Last week I introduced the concept of playing the horses with a “long run” mentality. In theory, this mentality will increase our chances for bankroll success as we navigate the ups and downs of this sometimes volatile game. But what does […]
Chalk Pub Talk with The Oracle
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSdE5j6JsYA&w=560&h=315] If you are interested in the many handicapping contests offered at Canterbury Park, visit the Simulcast Promotions page for more information.
The Long Run
“Who is gonna make it? We’ll find out in the long run”- The Eagles Maybe you’re like the Dude from “The Big Lebowski” and you hate the #$%& Eagles. Here’s a story for you anyway. Fifteen years ago, a man much wiser than me was sitting at table 414, jotting down trip notes and internal […]
…and the Agony of Defeat
They’re waiting for you at Belleview, with their oxygen masks – Manfred Mann Ten years ago, Smarty Jones turned for home in the Belmont Stakes with a dwindling three-length lead and Triple Crown immortality on the line. In his previous eight races, he had never been passed. He had just run the first mile and […]
Week 3 in Review by The Oracle
We experienced our first off track of the young season on Sunday, June 1, and a six pack of favorites splashed into the Mystic Lake Winners Circle from seven thoroughbred races. Personally, I prefer my six packs to come from the Chalk Pub and not be chalk horses, but that’s a video for another time. […]
The Oracle Reviews Week 2 of the Live Meet
Regression to the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme in its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement. The variable I’m referring to is “percentage of winning favorites at Canterbury Park”. We saw an “extreme” number of winning favorites in Week one (44%), […]
The Oracle Reviews Opening Weekend
It was feast or famine at Canterbury Park on opening weekend. Eleven favorites found the winner’s circle from twenty-five races (44%), but there were also six double-digit odds winners which sent some Pick 3 and Pick 4 payoffs skyrocketing. Of the nineteen Pick 3 payoffs, four were over the IRS reporting limit of $600 (it […]
Handicapping trends from the 2013 Canterbury live meet: Feast or Fools Gold?
When it comes to picking winners and handicapping horse races, there are as many theories as there are faces in the crowd. Everyone plots their own course, which is what makes the handicapping process such an enjoyable, challenging endeavor. I’m a believer that trends dominate in handicapping, and that statistics and trends do repeat themselves […]