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Pace Makes the Race?

Canterbury ActionI know it’s not a flashy grade one or a Triple Crown race, but the fifth event on Saturday’s Canterbury card is one that caught my attention with the cast assembled – and I think all betting prospects should be live despite the field’s size.

Most of the field hails from the Southwest, making their last starts either at Turf Paradise or Sunland Park. The unknown in this is… who will get the lead? With the exception of #3 Fraudulentfootnote, each filly made her last appearance in the winners’ circle after wiring a field.

That could be the simplest answer of them all – Bell on a closer? Check please! However, this filly has the most starts next to that one win, whereas the others meeting that condition (N2L) aren’t quite there yet. She was pretty hard-ridden in her maiden breaking effort last time throughout, although to a degree she had to be to keep her position from the far outside post. Again, she has plenty of losses to go with that one gutsy win.

So, if you’re not on that bandwagon which one of the speedsters breaks away? Visually #6 Key Affair couldn’t have looked better in her only lifetime experience, but that maiden breaker was significantly lower in price and size than the rest have been competing against lately. She really was not asked throughout, and the margin certainly could have been larger had the pilot not starting yawning halfway through.

She got quite the opposite journey of Midwest Runner #2 Ladyofthelilly’s last time around, whose introduction to Prairie Meadows was brutal at best. It didn’t appear that she was the only filly to get hot as the field loaded on May 10th, but she took all the worst of it out of the gate and didn’t appear interested after that. While Birzer tried his best to get her involved, the game plan was quickly foiled by her post and the torrid pace in front of her. Her race at Oaklawn may be the exception rather than the rule, but man was it dominant. She got a bit of a breather between her first and second quarters though, and that doesn’t look likely in here.

The rail filly #1 Objection should make sure of that, as well as #4 Pink Leninade. I can’t say much about Pink Leninade, as I got a healthy dose of her this spring and she’s kind of a one trick pony too. Give her the lead or give her death. She drew right in the middle of this one and that may not be where any of them want to end up.

#5 A J Tango doesn’t like to be too far behind either, and got caught in a couple of nasty speed duels this winter after being claimed by Valerie Lund. Even if the second time starter on the outside doesn’t show the same dazzling pace that she did in her first start these three are more than capable of cooking the likely favorite.

Objection in particular looks like she’s a filly in progress, but the talent is there and her efforts stack up with the rest of the field with the exception of speed figures. Despite the fast times at Turf Paradise the numbers generally don’t back them up due to the surface, but this runner made easy work of a short field at odds on last time. Notice in her first maiden effort that she was for sale and last time when actually breaking her maiden she was not… she’s not the prettiest of movers either but should she break the way she did last time she could take the heart out of a lot of this group. She was supposed to be a good one from a young age, as she was sold at Ocala for $37,000 two years ago. Obviously a two year old that works out quick and then doesn’t debut until she’s four is not all that she appears, but it looks as though the pieces are coming together and the price should be right.

Good luck on Saturday and for the entirety of your Holiday Weekend!

This blog was written by Canterbury Paddock Analyst Angela Hermann. Angela Hermann serves as the Track Analyst for Hawthorne Racecourse in Cicero, Illinois and the summer of 2013 will mark her third year in a similar capacity at Canterbury Park.