By The Oracle
Last week we passed the halfway point of the 70-day Canterbury Park live racing season. Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far in 2018. The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.
Favorites are winning 37% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2018. This is right on par with the national average, and one percentage point above the 2017 Canterbury meet. The claiming category has been the most formful so far this year, yielding 45 winning favorites from 114 races (39%). However, this category also unleashed the highest priced thoroughbred winner of the meet ($69.00) on May 25 when veteran campaigner Aroney prevailed by a nose at 33-1 over 29-1 second place finisher Ragged Edge. This 10-year-old gelding making his 94th career start was trained by Tony Rengstorf and ridden by Israel Hernandez. Congratulations to those connections!
Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track. This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 34% rate compared to 38% winning favorites on the dirt.
Regarding extreme longshots, there have been nine 20-1 and up winners this year. Of those nine, five were in turf races and four were on the main track. This is significant as there are many fewer turf races run than dirt races. Look for longshots on the Canterbury turf course!
Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings so far, the All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Chad Lindsay. Chad is currently tenth in the standings with 13 wins, and he is returning an impressive $1.29 for every dollar wagered on his mounts. Lindsay has truly been a longshot rider this meet, as 7 of his 13 wins have come at odds of 8-1 or higher. Chad was also aboard 3 of those 20-1+ longshot winners this meet as described above. Horses like that definitely help the ROI! In a statistical oddity, Lindsay is winless from 7 tries when riding the favorite. Still, an excellent first-performance from Chad Lindsay.
Dean Butler is also having an excellent meet from an ROI perspective. Returning from an injury suffered last season, Butler is currently third in the jockey standings with 32 wins. He is showing a flat bet profit on his mounts, which returned $1.12 for every dollar wagered. Considering what a known commodity Butler is around Canterbury Park, this is some very good work over the first half of the season. Butler also is showing an excellent 52%-win rate (14/27) on favorites so far this meet.
The top ten trainer list had three trainers showing a positive ROI at the midway mark. Tim Padilla got the All-Star award with 11 wins from 54 starts, achieving an ROI of $1.31 for every dollar wagered. He has been dominant in routes on the main track (9/20, ROI = 3.15), and has also had good success in maiden special weight races (3/16, ROI = 1.96). Minny O’Prado fit both profiles in her maiden victory at 17-1 back on June 14.
Miguel Angel Silva has also had a very good first half, winning 21 races with an ROI of 1.13. His best category was maiden claiming races, winning with 6 of 26 runners (ROI = 1.55) including a 17-1 winner named Ginger Rose on May 26 in a maiden claiming race on the turf. Silva has been remarkably consistent on both surfaces, winning at better than a 20% clip on both turf and dirt so far this meet.
David Van Winkle is the third trainer showing a flat bet profit over the first half of the meet. His 8/48 record is good for ninth in the current standings. He has been strong in sprints on the main track, winning 4 of 19 starts with an ROI of 1.44 for every dollar wagered.
That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective. Notice that most of the leading riders and trainers from a win perspective do not show up high on the ROI list. The public tends to overbet the leading jockeys and trainers so it pays to keep an open mind. Good luck in the second half of the meet!