The hot, humid summer continues and the Canterbury main track has consistently favored pure front-runners all year. The track bias for the last month shows dirt sprints and routes yielding wire-to-wire winners at a 45% clip, which is about double the national average. Even turf races are yielding 25% front running winners, which is about 10 percentage points above the national average.
The bottom line: Speed is dominant at all distances on the main track.
Favorites are currently winning at a 43% clip in thoroughbred races with an ROI of $0.98 for every dollar wagered. For much of the meet, the favorite was generating a flat bet profit but it has now slipped just under the breakeven point. Dirt sprints are the most chalk friendly races, with a 49% favorite win rate and an ROI of $1.04. Dirt routes are next at 46% and $0.95. Turf races are tougher to predict, yielding 32% winning favorites and $0.86 return on every dollar wagered. Not a surprise at all.
Jockey Spotlight: Lori Keith
Lori Keith has quietly moved into third place in the jockey standings with 23 wins from 126 starters, an 18% win rate. More impressively, she has compiled a flat bet profit of $1.02 for every dollar wagered on her horses so far this summer.
She has been a money rider on the turf this summer, winning 6 of 12 turf sprints (less than 1 mile) with an ROI of $2.83 for every dollar wagered. Her record in turf routes is 3 for 21, but one winner was a $40 bomb so her ROI is still $1.54 at this distance.
Take a close look at her horses when she rides for the Vic Hanson barn or the Michael Biehler barn as 20 of her 23 wins have been for one of these two barns. For Hanson, she has 10 wins from 52 starters for an ROI of $1.34. For Biehler, she has 10 wins from 34 starters for an ROI of $1.07.
From a wagering perspective, she’s definitely been giving her supporters their money’s worth!
This blog was written by Canterbury Regular “The Oracle”. The Oracle is a longtime Minnesota race fan that has handicapped Canterbury’s races religiously for more than 20 years. He writes about handicapping and statistical trends in Canterbury’s races.
Photo Credit: Coady Photography