by The Oracle
We recently passed the halfway point of the 2022 Canterbury Park live racing season. Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far in 2022. The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.
Favorites are winning 43% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2022. This is five percentage points higher than the national average, and the same as the first half results in the 2021 Canterbury meet. A win wager on every thoroughbred favorite at Canterbury so far this meet would have returned $0.94 for every dollar wagered. It seems likely that both the winning favorites percentage and the ROI on those favorites will decline in the second half of the meet as they would move towards historical levels.
Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track. This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 41% rate compared to 44% winning favorites on the dirt. The general rule of thumb that favorites win more often on the main track than on the turf should hold true. The strongest category for winning favorites is the maiden claiming races, where the favorites are winning 46% of the time.
Regarding extreme longshots, there have been seven 20-1 and up winners this year. Three of those seven longshot winners occurred on the main track (2 sprints and 1 route) and four were on the turf (2 sprints and 2 routes). But big longshots are elusive at Canterbury Park, as 396 horses have gone to post at greater than 20-1 odds with only 7 winning. That’s a win percentage from that sample of about 2%.
Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings, Harry Hernandez holds a one-win lead on Luis Fuentes at the halfway point. But Hernandez and Fuentes are known commodities by the betting public with ROIs of 0.75 and 0.81, respectively. The All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Jermaine Bridgmohan. Jermaine is currently tenth in the standings with 10 wins from 65 mounts (15%), and he is returning $1.02 for every dollar wagered on his mounts. Bridgmohan has been a turf specialist, with 8 of his 10 wins coming on the turf. Bridgmohan’s turf ROI is an impressive $1.77 for every dollar wagered from 36 mounts. One of those turf wins was aboard 25-1 longshot Skippy’s Strike on June 18 that triggered an $11,515 trifecta. Jermaine has also been reliable on favorites, winning with 5 of 8 horses that have been favored. Quite an impressive performance from an ROI perspective by Jermaine Bridgmohan in the first half of the meet!
Joel Berndt and Mac Robertson are dominating the trainer standings this year, with Berndt currently holding a two-win lead over Robertson 36-34. However, from an ROI perspective, the All-Star award goes to Gary Scherer, who is returning a generous $1.47 for every dollar wagered on his horses. Gary is tied for tenth in the trainer standings with 7 wins from 30 starts (23%). Of his 7 winners, 4 of them have come on the turf from 15 starters. His biggest priced winner this meet was 14-1 Twoko Bay on May 29, winning a one-mile turf allowance race by 3 lengths with Lindey Wade aboard. Joel Berndt also deserves a mention here, as not only is he leading the trainer standings, he is doing so while posting a positive ROI of 1.04 thus far this meet. A couple of noteworthy items here, Berndt has been rock solid with favorites this meet, winning 61% of the time when favored (27/44 ROI 1.25) and he has been dominant in route races on both dirt and turf, combining for 39% winners on both surfaces with an ROI in routes of 1.56 for every dollar wagered. Congratulations to both Joel Berndt and Gary Scherer for excellent first halves of the 2022 season!
That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective. Good luck in the second half of the meet! As always, good luck when playing the 10% takeout Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers at Canterbury Park.
Bruce ‘The Oracle’ Meyer is six-time Canterbury Park Handicapper of the Year and occasional contributor to Canterbury Live.