By The Oracle
We recently passed the halfway point of the 2020 Canterbury Park live racing season. Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far this summer. The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.
Favorites are winning 35% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2020. This is one percentage point lower than the national average, and four percentage points below the 2019 Canterbury meet. When favorites lose, that’s when giant payouts can occur! We have already had three Pick 5 payouts in excess of $50 thousand dollars for a 50-cent wager this year.
Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track. This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 31% rate compared to 36% winning favorites on the dirt.
Regarding extreme longshots, there have been ten 20-1 and up winners this year. Seven of those ten longshot winners occurred in dirt sprints and two were in turf sprints. Four of the big longshots occurred in maiden special weight races. In fact, playing every horse to win at odds over 20-1 so far this meet would have been a break-even proposition thus far, with 10 winners from 346 starters through July 27. Maiden claiming races continue to be the most formful, with no big longshot winners and 36% winning favorites from 66 races.
Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings, the All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Alonzo Quinonez. Alonzo is currently fourth in the standings with 18 wins, and he is returning an impressive $1.39 for every dollar wagered on his mounts. Quinonez shows 15 of his 18 wins on the main track, and he has been particularly good in dirt routes with a 26%-win rate, which included a $73 winner. Alonzo also brought home a big longshot on the turf with $94 winner Lilfeatheredindian, triggering a giant P5 payout of $98 thousand dollars. Quite a strong performance by Alonzo Quinonez in the first half of the meet!
While Mac Robertson and Robertino Diodoro historically dominate the trainer standings, this year it’s pretty bunched at the top of the leaderboard. The All-Star award goes to Tony Rengstorf, who is returning a generous $1.98 for every dollar wagered on his horses. Of his 11 winners, 4 of them have been at 8-1 or higher and he has been very successful in sprint races on both the main track and the turf. Claiming races have been his best category as he is 5/16 (31%) with an ROI of 3.58. One of those winners paid a whopping $80! Congratulations to Tony Rengstorf for an excellent first half to the 2020 season!
Honorable mention goes out to Francisco Bravo (1.56) as he also generated much first half success for the betting public!
That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective. Notice that most of the leading riders and trainers from a win perspective do not show up high on the ROI list. The public tends to overbet the leading jockeys and trainers so it pays to keep an open mind. Good luck in the second half of the meet!