Working My Way Back To You – The Four Seasons
With seven race days in the books, the 2015 Canterbury Park live meet is 10 percent complete. Despite the relatively small sample size, it’s instructive to analyze the winning horses’ past performances to find patterns and potentially profitable angles that may carry forward over the next several weeks.
It’s a false cliché to say that “time only matters in prison”, because time also matters on the racetrack. The pace of the race matters, the final time of the race matters, and it is being proven so far at Canterbury Park in 2015 that time also matters in the morning workouts.
An interesting angle has developed over the first two weeks of the meet pertaining to workouts, specifically 5 furlong workouts. The angle is this:
Play any horse that shows a 5 furlong workout that was one of the top 3 workouts of the day, providing the workout was within 30 days of today’s race and occurred after the horses’ previous start.
The sharp 5 furlong workout as an angle in horse racing is nothing new, but it still holds potential profitability because pace and speed figures (as well as trainer and jockey statistics) get the majority of the attention from the betting public.
Over the first 7 days of the current meet, this angle has produced 10 winners from 44 starters (22.7%) with an ROI of $1.60 for every dollar wagered. Considering there have been several instances where 2 or 3 horses qualified from the same race, this angle is worth following. Limiting plays to horses going to post at 8-1 and up, that subset produced 3 winners from 24 starters (12.5%) with an ROI of $2.11 for every dollar wagered. Here is a quick look at those 3 winners:
Vanderbilt Beach paid $19.20 on May 16 in his first start since October 29. This runner showed a bullet 5f workout of 1:01.0 on May 10 at Canterbury Park, best of 35 workouts.
Nesterenko Ridge paid $52.00 on May 22 in his first start since November 20. This runner showed a 5f workout of 1:01.4 on May 10 at Canterbury Park, 2nd best of 35 workouts.
Score More paid $30.00 on May 23 in her first start since March 19. She showed a 5f workout of 1:00.2 at Canterbury Park on May 16, 2nd best of 52 workouts.
Workouts are about fitness and trainer intent, and sometimes these horses can fly under the radar. Keep your eye on those sharp, 5 furlong workouts and mix these runners into your plays. As always, let the tote board be your guide.
Here are the qualifiers for the Friday, May 29 card:
Race 2) Demi’s Nativedancer (8-1)
Race 3) Caleb’s Comet (10-1), Coustad (6-1) Francis Henry (15-1)
Race 4) A P Is Loose (10-1), Pilatus (4-1)
Race 5) Skiers Gold (4-1)
Best of luck at the windows.