Week 1 in Review (Stats & Trends)

If you were able to attend the races on Friday and Saturday, you saw a series of front running winners over a fast track which is not unusual early in the meet. After the storms moved through on Saturday night, the track played a bit more evenly on Sunday as off-the-pace runners held their own.

Opening night produced a wide variance in Pick 4 payoffs, as the early Pick 4 returned a chalky $37.55 for 50-cents and the late Pick 4 was a pool sweeping $8,237.90 for 50-cents. Thanks to the reduced takeout on the Pick 4 this year, that lucky winner received an additional $862.10 over what it would have paid last year! More good news for Pick 4 players: all six Pick 4 payoffs were overlays compared to the win parlays of the sequence. The overlays ranged from 9% to 93% above the win parlays. Keep playing that Pick 4 at Canterbury Park!

Jockeys Juan Rivera (Rivera aboard Bet Your Boots in the 10,000 Lakes Stakes above) and Dean Butler led all riders with 4 winners. Trainer Tony Rengstorf saddled three winners to get off to a nice start.

I talked about Post 1 in my Canterbury preview last week. The rail post got off to a bit of a slow start the first weekend with only three winners, but they were all good prices and produced a break even ROI for the three days.

Here’s another angle that might be worth following, and a few facts and figures from opening weekend…

The Beaten Favorite Angle

This is an angle that involves wagering on any runner who was a beaten favorite in their last start. There were 14 such runners over the weekend at Canterbury and seven of them were victorious. That’s a 50% strike rate and the angle returned $2.29 for every dollar wagered.

Winners Previous Start

Horses shipped to Canterbury Park from across the country. Here’s a breakdown of the major tracks horses shipped from, and how they fared on opening weekend:

Prairie Meadows: 5 winners from 28 starters. ROI 0.89

Hawthorne: 3 winners from 15 starters. ROI 0.55

Canterbury (2011 meet) : 3 winners from 51 starters. ROI 0.63

Oaklawn Park: 2 winners from 11 starters. ROI 1.96

Turf Paradise: 2 winners from 19 starters. ROI 0.26

Fonner Park: 2 winners from 21 starters. ROI 0.86

Slow Starting Stats

First time starters went 0 for 13 on opening weekend. Related to that, horses running on Lasix for the first time went 0 for 15. And horses with Morning Line odds of 10-1 and higher were only 1 for 50 during the first three days. Things to keep in mind…

This blog was written by Canterbury Regular “The Oracle”. The Oracle is a longtime Minnesota race fan that has handicapped Canterbury’s races religiously for more than 20 years. He writes about handicapping and statistical trends in Canterbury’s races.

Photo Credit: Coady Photography

12 thoughts on “Week 1 in Review (Stats & Trends)”

  1. Oracle’s statistical insights are fascinating! I would have never thought to look at some of these angles!

  2. Its back to typical wire-to-wire on the main track so far this year(not like last year). What can we expect from the turf course? wire-to-wire inside post?

    1. Ron – See Dave’s response below. The track was extremely speed favoring last weekend – maybe more so than it has ever been. Not sure what to expect on the turf. This rain could have changed things quite a bit for both courses.

  3. Its back to typical wire-to-wire on the main track so far this year(not like last year). What can we expect from the turf course? wire-to-wire inside post?

    1. Ron – See Dave’s response below. The track was extremely speed favoring last weekend – maybe more so than it has ever been. Not sure what to expect on the turf. This rain could have changed things quite a bit for both courses.

  4. Good data. Here’s a significant one. With 25 races run this last opening weekend, 16 races were won by horses that made the lead just half way through the race!!! NONE of the races were won by a horse more than 2 lengths off the lead half way through the race!!! If this continues, this will go down as the most dramatic speed bias I have ever seen at any racetrack in 50 years of handicapping. Never opinion, just facts pulled out of the charts.

  5. Good data. Here’s a significant one. With 25 races run this last opening weekend, 16 races were won by horses that made the lead just half way through the race!!! NONE of the races were won by a horse more than 2 lengths off the lead half way through the race!!! If this continues, this will go down as the most dramatic speed bias I have ever seen at any racetrack in 50 years of handicapping. Never opinion, just facts pulled out of the charts.

  6. Good info Dave. It was very speed friendly – maybe more so than ever. When it gets to be that speed friendly, there is typically a rail bias that exists too. Watching back the races, I have an inkling that it was a speed and a rail bias working together. In any case, this rain should have evened out the surface a little bit. We’ll have to see come tomorrow night!

  7. Good info Dave. It was very speed friendly – maybe more so than ever. When it gets to be that speed friendly, there is typically a rail bias that exists too. Watching back the races, I have an inkling that it was a speed and a rail bias working together. In any case, this rain should have evened out the surface a little bit. We’ll have to see come tomorrow night!

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