“That’s the way that lady luck dances. Roll the bones.”– Lyric from the song “Roll the Bones” by Rush
Last week the Road to Kentucky contest track returned to Keeneland for a 10-race card. Conspicuously absent from the contest slate was a Kentucky Derby prep race. Those are now in the rear view mirror, as all the Derby points have been earned. The top twenty Kentucky Derby hopefuls are making their final preparations for the first Saturday in May.
As Dan Fogelberg once sang, “It’s high time to join in the dance”.
The Twittersphere is abuzz with speculation and analysis, as handicappers from across the country are trying to determine who this year’s Commanding Curve or Golden Soul will be. Will it be a Baffert sandwich this year? Will Pletcher improve on his 1/40 Kentucky Derby record? Will a Wood Memorial runner finish in-the-money for the first time since 2003?
Questions, questions, questions…
In the meantime, there were some fireworks in last week’s contest results. Despite the fact that there were five winning favorites from 10 races, the maximum points available last week were a generous 3,062. That’s because Quiet Ry and Dramedy both prevailed from the rail at 30-1, stunning the crowd like snake eyes at the craps table. Those two winners will be selected by very few contest players, but having one of them on your card will be mandatory for a top five weekly placing. Even after the fact, I wasn’t able to make a reasonable case to tab either of those two contest gems. I believe 1,800 points should be a winner for the week, unless somebody had both longshots on their card. Since they were both 1’s, that possibility does increase. My 564 point total for the week will not be a threat.
This Saturday the contest track is Churchill Downs, with the double-point bonus race being the Willie Walker, for a twilight extravaganza that begins at 5:00 p.m. Hope to see you here!