Canterbury Park First Half in Review

By The Oracle

We recently passed the halfway point of the 2020 Canterbury Park live racing season.  Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far this summer.  The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.

The Odds: 

Favorites are winning 35% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2020.  This is one percentage point lower than the national average, and four percentage points below the 2019 Canterbury meet.  When favorites lose, that’s when giant payouts can occur!  We have already had three Pick 5 payouts in excess of $50 thousand dollars for a 50-cent wager this year.

Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track.  This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 31% rate compared to 36% winning favorites on the dirt.

Regarding extreme longshots, there have been ten 20-1 and up winners this year.  Seven of those ten longshot winners occurred in dirt sprints and two were in turf sprints.  Four of the big longshots occurred in maiden special weight races.  In fact, playing every horse to win at odds over 20-1 so far this meet would have been a break-even proposition thus far, with 10 winners from 346 starters through July 27. Maiden claiming races continue to be the most formful, with no big longshot winners and 36% winning favorites from 66 races.

The Jockeys:

Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings, the All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Alonzo Quinonez.  Alonzo is currently fourth in the standings with 18 wins, and he is returning an impressive $1.39 for every dollar wagered on his mounts.  Quinonez shows 15 of his 18 wins on the main track, and he has been particularly good in dirt routes with a 26%-win rate, which included a $73 winner.  Alonzo also brought home a big longshot on the turf with $94 winner Lilfeatheredindian, triggering a giant P5 payout of $98 thousand dollars.  Quite a strong performance by Alonzo Quinonez in the first half of the meet!

The Trainers:

While Mac Robertson and Robertino Diodoro historically dominate the trainer standings, this year it’s pretty bunched at the top of the leaderboard.  The All-Star award goes to Tony Rengstorf, who is returning a generous $1.98 for every dollar wagered on his horses.  Of his 11 winners, 4 of them have been at 8-1 or higher and he has been very successful in sprint races on both the main track and the turf.  Claiming races have been his best category as he is 5/16 (31%) with an ROI of 3.58.  One of those winners paid a whopping $80!  Congratulations to Tony Rengstorf for an excellent first half to the 2020 season!

Honorable mention goes out to Francisco Bravo (1.56) as he also generated much first half success for the betting public!

Summary:

That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective.  Notice that most of the leading riders and trainers from a win perspective do not show up high on the ROI list.  The public tends to overbet the leading jockeys and trainers so it pays to keep an open mind.  Good luck in the second half of the meet!

2020 Canterbury Park Live Meet Preview from The Oracle

Opening day of the 2020 Canterbury Park live racing meet is tomorrow, Wednesday, June 10!  That means it’s time to look back at the 2019 Canterbury Park live meet from a statistical standpoint and use that data to help us better predict the outcomes of the 2020 Canterbury Park races.

Also, please note that the Canterbury Pick 5 wager this year is no longer a jackpot bet and it offers the lowest takeout in the country, and likely the universe, of 10%.  This is absolutely the best bet in racing!

Here’s a look at some final statistics for the thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park in 2019, as we prepare to unlock the 2020 Canterbury Park handicapping puzzle.  Good luck in 2020!

The Favorite

The public correctly selected the winner 39% of the time in all thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park last year.  That is 1-percentage point above the national average for winning favorites at all racetracks in North America in 2019, and is 3 percentage points above how favorites fared at Canterbury Park in 2018.  The most formful races last year were the races for maiden claimers, which produced winning favorites 49% of the time (37/76).  Despite the high percentage of winning favorites in this category, betting them all still produced a 2% net loss.  This has been a trend that has held up well the past several years.  A lot of favorites seem to get their picture taken in the maiden claiming ranks at Canterbury Park.  Conversely, the maiden special weight races proved to be elusive to the betting public last year, as only 30% of the favorites in that category prevailed.  Let’s see if that trend carries forward to 2020.

The Odds

Last year, heavy favorites that were bet down to 7/5 odds or lower won 152 races out of 332 attempts.  That’s a 46%-win rate, but it also shows that these “locks” lost more often than they won.

On the other end of the spectrum, there were 12 winners at 20-1 odds or higher last year, but over 800 runners went to post at those high odds.  Betting them all would have returned a paltry 38 cents on the dollar.  Historically, Canterbury Park has not been a “longshot” paradise, and last year 78% of the thoroughbred races were won by horses at odds below 6-1.

The “sweet spot” for win betting last year was the 6-1/7-1 odds range.  That was a break-even proposition for the 343 runners if you played them all.

The Jockeys

Francisco Arrieta won his first riding title at Canterbury Park last year as he led all jockeys with 79 wins.  Orlando Mojica finished second with 74 wins and Ry Eikleberry was third with 60 wins.

Arrieta won with 23% of his mounts last year, and returned 95 cents on the dollar overall.  When the leading rider is still able to beat the takeout by 12 percentage points, that indicates that it is still possible to find some value out there for his mounts.  We will see if the public is more tuned in to Arrieta in 2020, as he figures to be in contention for leading rider once again.  He was solid with favorites (43% winners) and he showed a flat bet profit in dirt sprints (ROI = $1.07) and turf routes (ROI = $1.03).  His win percentage on the dirt was higher than on the turf last year (26% to 16%).  Also, Arrieta was 0/18 with horses above 20-1, but he did bring in a 19-1 winner in a dirt sprint.

As of now, Orlando Mojica will not be back at Canterbury Park this summer, but 2018 leading rider Ry Eikleberry is returning after finishing third in the standings last year.  Eikleberry has had a lot of success at Canterbury over the years, and he attracts a lot of wagering dollars.  Therefore, finding value with his mounts is a difficult task.  Wagering on all of Eikleberry’s mounts last year would have returned only 74 cents on the dollar.  He rode 91 favorites last year, winning with 29 of them (32% win and ROI = 0.73).  Eikleberry has a reputation as an excellent gate jockey who puts his mounts on the lead.  Therefore, it’s no surprise that his best category has historically been in dirt sprints.  Last year was no exception as he won with 23% of his mounts in sprint mounts and beat the takeout by 8 percentage points.

Of the top 10 jockeys last year, Quincy Hamilton led all riders with an ROI of 0.96.  The “flaming wallet” award went to Constantino Roman, who’s mounts returned only 40 cents on the dollar in 2019.

The Trainers

For the past several years, McLean Robertson and Robertino Diodoro have battled it out for leading trainer honors at Canterbury Park, with Robertson prevailing last year 73 wins to 71 wins.  Both trainers have their strengths which tend to carry over from year to year.

Mac Robertson won with 25% of his starters last year, including 42% of the time his horses were favored.  Robertson showed a flat bet profit in dirt routes and maiden claiming races, and easily beat the takeout in allowance races and maiden special weight races.  Historically, Robertson has not been one to win with longshots at Canterbury Park, as his highest price winner last year paid $23 dollars.  Roberston was especially strong last year with his fillies and mares, winning with 33 of 90 (37%) with an ROI of 1.19 for every dollar wagered.  Expect another strong performance by Robertson in 2020, as he looms the favorite to repeat as leading trainer once again.

Robertino Diodoro won with 26% of his starters last year, and also won with 42% of his horses that went to post as the favorite.  In a rare feat, betting on Diodoro favored runners to place and show last year produced a positive ROI of 1.07 and 1.05, respectively.  Diodoro’s main game is claiming races and that is where he is the most dangerous.  He won with 31% (44 of 144) of his claiming runners last year, showing an ROI of 1.10 for every dollar wagered.  Diodoro’s highest price winner last year was 14-1, and he had 3 winners of 8-1 and higher from 39 tries.  He did not have much luck in the maiden special weight ranks, winning just 1 race in 19 attempts and the winner paid $4.  Expect him to be near the top of the trainer standings throughout the season.

Honorable mention goes to Tony Rengstorf who had 25 wins at Canterbury and posted a positive ROI of 1.11 for all his mounts.  Rengstorf was an impressive 60% with favorites (12/20 and ROI 1.41) and also posted a positive ROI with longshots 8-1 and higher (7/70 and ROI 1.27).  His highest price winner last meet was 16-1.

The “flaming wallet” award went to Valerie Lund, with an ROI last year of 0.61.  While she was dominant with favorites (7/9 and ROI 1.62) thanks in large part to her top runner Mr. Jagermeister, she was only 1/50 at 8-1 and higher last year at Canterbury (ROI = 0.18).

Best of luck playing the 2020 live racing meet at Canterbury Park!

by The Oracle

Canterbury Park First Half in Review

by The Oracle

Before racing took a short break for the summer concerts, we passed the halfway point of the 2019 Canterbury Park live racing season. Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far in 2019. The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.

The Odds:

Favorites are winning 36% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2019. This is two percentage points lower than the national average, and one percentage point below the 2018 Canterbury meet. Fewer winning favorites can mean more lucrative payouts! The maiden claiming category has been the most formful so far this year, yielding 20 winning favorites from 44 races (45%). The least formful category so far has been the maiden special weight races, with 13 winning favorites from 49 races (27%). This category also yielded the highest priced winner of the meet so far when 32-1 Sink The Bismarck stunned a field of maidens going a flat mile on the main track. Sink The Bismarck had exited a second-place finish sprinting in a maiden claiming race, and handled the stretch-out and the rise in class with no problem. He was trained by Bruce Riecken and ridden by Eddie Martin Jr. Congratulations to the connections of Sink The Bismarck for that stunning upset!

Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track. This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 28% rate compared to 39% winning favorites on the dirt.

Regarding extreme longshots, there have been seven 20-1 and up winners this year. Longshot winners create giant payoffs, but it’s important to pick your spots. Playing all longshots over 20-1 to win at Canterbury Park this year would have returned only 51-cents for every dollar wagered.

The Jockeys:

Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings, the All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Jareth Loveberry. Jareth is currently fourth in the standings with 28 wins, and he is returning an impressive $1.26 for every dollar wagered on his mounts. Loveberry shows 22 of his 28 wins on the main track, and he has been particularly good in off-track sprints with a 33%-win rate, including a $52 winner. Jareth has 5 winners that paid 8-1 or higher and all of those longshot wins were on the main track. An excellent first half performance from Jareth Loveberry!

Honorable mentions go out to Eddie Martin Jr. and Santiago Gonzalez, who posted first half ROI’s of 1.12 and 1.11, respectively. Eddie has made this list before and tends to find the Mystic Lake Winner’s Circle with longshot winners every year!

The Trainers:

It’s no surprise that Robertino Diodoro and Mac Robertson are dominating the trainer standings once again. However, they are known commodities that the public gravitates towards, and their respective ROI’s in the first half of this season were only 0.86 and 0.76.

The All-Star award goes to Francisco Bravo, who is returning a generous $1.60 for every dollar wagered on his horses. Of his 13 winners, 4 of them have been at 8-1 or higher and he has been equally strong on both dirt and turf. Claiming races have been his best category as he is 6/24 (25%) with an ROI of 1.93. Congratulations to Francisco Bravo for an excellent first half to the 2019 season!

Honorable mentions go out to Tony Rengstorf (1.37), Jose Silva, Jr. (1.22), Joel Berndt (1.04) and Mike Biehler (1.03) as they all had first half success for the betting public!

Summary:

That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective. Notice that most of the leading riders and trainers from a win perspective do not show up high on the ROI list. The public tends to overbet the leading jockeys and trainers so it pays to keep an open mind. Good luck in the second half of the meet!

The Oracle Provides Insight

By The Oracle

The 2019 live racing season is upon us!  Every year brings a unique excitement for the season to come, as horses arrive from all parts of the country.  The ever-challenging handicapping puzzle brings these horses together, and it’s up to us to predict what will happen once the gates open.

Here’s a look at some final statistics for the thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park in 2018, as we prepare to unlock the 2019 Canterbury Park handicapping puzzle.  Good luck in 2019!

The Favorite

The public correctly selected the winner 36% of the time in all thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park last year.  That is 1-percentage point below the national average for winning favorites at all racetracks in North America in 2018, and is consistent with how favorites fared at Canterbury Park in 2017.  The most formful races last year were the races for 2-year-olds, which produced winning favorites 47% of the time (15/32).  Conversely, the claiming races proved to be elusive to the betting public last year, as only 32% of the favorites prevailed.

The Odds

Last year, heavy favorites that were bet down to 7/5 odds or lower won 141 races out of 314 attempts.  That’s a 45% win rate, but it also shows that these “locks” lost more often than they won.

On the other end of the spectrum, there were 14 winners at 20-1 odds or higher last year, but nearly 1,000 runners went to post at those high odds.  Historically, Canterbury Park has not been a “longshot” paradise, and last year 78% of the thoroughbred races were won by horses at odds below 6-1.

The Jockeys

Ry Eikleberry and Orlando Mojica battled it out for the riding title last year, with Eikleberry prevailing 87 to 79.

Despite the win total, Eikleberry was not a profitable jockey to wager blindly on last year, as his mounts only returned $0.70 on the dollar.  He was solid with favorites though, (42% winners) and he showed a flat bet profit in dirt routes with a 27% win rate and an ROI of $1.05 for every dollar wagered.

Orlando Mojica had a slightly better ROI of $0.78 with his mounts.  His most profitable category was in turf sprints (<1 mile) where he won 25% of the time with a positive ROI of $1.26 for every dollar wagered.

Neither Eikleberry nor Mojica were known as longshot riders last year.  Combined, they were 5 for 190 with an ROI hovering around $0.30 on the dollar.

The Trainers

McLean Robertson and Robertino Diodoro tied for the top trainer honors last year with 57 wins.  Both trainers have their strengths which tend to carry over from year to year.

Mac Robertson won with 24% of his starters last year, including 38% of the time his horses were favored.  Robertson showed a flat bet profit in turf routes, and easily beat the takeout in State-bred races and maiden special weight races.  Historically, Robertson has not been one to win with longshots at Canterbury Park, as he was only 4% with horses off at 8-1 and higher last year and those plays returned only $0.34 for every dollar wagered.  Robertson is also campaigning Amy’s Challenge, who was voted the Canterbury Park Horse of the Meet in 2017, and is currently one of the fastest female sprinters in the country.  Expect another strong performance by Robertson in 2019, as he looms the favorite to repeat as leading trainer once again.

Robertino Diodoro won with 23% of his starters last year, but only won with 28% of his horses that went to post as the favorite.  Diodoro’s main game is claiming races and that is where he is the most dangerous.  He won with 29% of his claimers and maiden claimers last year, showing a flat bet profit in both categories.  Diodoro’s highest price winner last year was 9-1, so he is another trainer not prone to connect with longshots.  Expect him to be near the top of the trainer standings throughout the season.

Good luck playing the 2019 live racing meet at Canterbury Park!

The Horseplayer

Jay Lietzau has a passion for playing the horses. He’s been doing so since the ’80s. A week ago Lietzau used his skill and knowledge of local racing to find success on Canterbury’s biggest weekend of handicapping contests.

He participated in the Ultimate NHC Qualifier handicapping contest via an entry he won in an August contest, and also entered the 22nd annual Dog Days of Summer Handicapping Tournament on Sept 8-9. Lietzau finished second in the Ultimate, winning a berth in the $2 million National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas this winter. He also finished third of 90 in Dog Days, tripling his live-money bankroll and earning another $2,250 in prize money.

The Ultimate format requires players to utilize a $400 real-money bankroll, betting at least half of that bankroll in each of six Canterbury races. Because players must bet aggressively, no lead is too large to sit and no bankroll too small to prevent a comeback.

“An incredibly fun format,” Lietzau said. “The part I love about it is if you have a bankroll, you’re never out of it. I was down to $170. Three races later, I was on my way to Vegas.”

The races produced many short-priced winners which kept the leaderboard fairly compact and players forced to confront likely race outcomes. Early on the leader had $1,700 but that bankroll quickly diminished, meaning anyone with money could be hopeful.  Lietzau hammered a straight exacta to build his roll and finished off with a $600 win bet on gate-to-wire winner Baydar who paid $4.60. Another local, Terry Severson, won the contest with $1,429 and Lietzau ended with $1,380, enough send him to Vegas where top prize in the NHC is $1 million.

The Dog Days contest allows players, over the course of two days, to wager with a $400 live bankroll on any races and pools of choice at any track. Horseplayers from at least 12 states and Canada converged in Shakopee to chase entries to NHC as well as $10,000 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge berth.

Play on day one did not produce any remarkable results and the leader had $1,400. Sunday morning saw the cancellation of Kentucky Downs due to rain and the weather at Belmont forced all races to the main track with many scratches. Much homework was done for naught.

The eventual winner, Bill Chenvert of Florida, capitalized on Los Alamitos races late in the day, growing his bankroll to a winning final total of $2,109.Kenny Shaw from Illinois was second, for the second consecutive year, with $1,635. Last year Shaw’s second-place bankroll exceeded $4,000, proof of how difficult it was to find big payouts last Sunday. Both earned NHC entries with Chenvert also getting the BCBC entry. Lietzau was only a couple hundred dollars behind in third. The prize payout, along with his success two days earlier, made for a profitable weekend, one any horseplayer would embrace.

Dog Days Results

Bill Chenvert   $2,109.00 bankroll   BCBC / NHC / $1,350 cash

Kenny Shaw    $1,635.70 bankroll   NHC / $3,150 cash

Jay Lietzau  $1,464.65 bankroll        $2,250 cash

Fred Williams    $1,323.70 bankroll     $1,575 cash

Bruce Meyer       $1,154.50 bankroll        $675 cash

Handicap Your Way To Cash and Vegas

Winning the annual $2 million National Horseplayers Championship is one of the most difficult feats in handicapping. Players must qualify to get to the February event in Las Vegas and this weekend Canterbury offers a pair of contests that can initiate that journey.

Saturday’s Ultimate Handicapper’s Weekend Satellite, with a $100 entry fee, will move winners into the Sept. 7 Ultimate NHC Qualifier and the 22nd annual Dog Days of Summer Contest on Sept. 8 -9. Winners in those contests qualify for the NHC and the Dog Days winner also earns a $10,000 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge entry.

Sunday’s Ultimate NHC Satellite has a $50 entry fee and winners earn entry to the Sept. 7 contest at Canterbury. Both contests this weekend have the same format:  10 mandatory races where entrants select a horse in each race with points awarded based on mutuel prices of selections.

There is an additional betting contest Saturday night using the ‘Ultimate’ format devised by tournament veteran Ross Gallo and used in the Ultimate Handicappers Invitational. Players put up a live cash bankroll, in this case $500, and make wagers using that bankroll. On Saturday it will be six of Canterbury’s live races. The catch is that each wager must be at least one-half of the existing bankroll.  The first bet is $250 minimum. The next wager is half what is left after the first race is official. The player that has the largest bankroll at the end of the contest wins $4,000 in addition to what could be a substantial bankroll. There is also a $1,000 bonus paid to the player that wagers the most money over the six race sequence.

Saturday live racing begins at 6pm. The contest races will be determined after entries but is sure to use the three turf stakes that night: the $100,000 Mystic Lake Turf Express, the $50,000 HBPA Distaff Stakes, and the $50,000 Brooks Fields Stakes.

The Eighties Get Rained Out

By Jim Wells

Friday nights  offer a special blend of racing and music and occasionally enhance the evening with a variety of promotional activities.  This time nostalgia became part of the mix.

It was Eighties Night, a celebration of a decade known for a variety of bands, movies and characters, and employees from various levels did their best to recognize the occasion, as did a smattering of patrons.

Alexis Pearson, who sells Kevin Gorg’s tip sheet at the main entrance, was privy to a variety of wardrobes and comments.

One fellow came in, she reported, and said “eighties night. I thought they said it was ladies night.”

Ms. Pearson wasn’t certain this patron was serious, although others were.

“I think I saw more employees in getups than customers, though” she added

And so it went on a stormy night that included a delay after race five because of lightning and a torrential downpour that included rain that fell downward, sideways, right and left, every direction but up. The delay eventually was changed to a cancellation of the remaining races.

Yet, much had taken place by that point. Paddock analyst Brian Arrigoni made his appearances in a long stringy wig, emulating a member of an eighties  heavy metal rock band, while doing a much better job of handicapping by picking the first three winners on the card.

“You can’t win them all if you don’t win the first three,” he bellowed.

It  so happens that the wig he was wearing once belonged to Gorg, a previous paddock picker better known these days for his outside the dressing room accounts of Minnesota Twins and Wild games. Gorg’s tip sheet included the first three winners on the card as well.

As that information was delivered to the pressbox, media boss Jeff Maday noticed that Ms. Pearson handed Arrigoni one of Gorg’s tipsheets. “Oh, that’s where you got those selections,” Maday chortled.

The Oracle

 

Then there was handicapper supreme, the Oracle, acing a quiz as part of the evening’s festivities to win an eighties trivia contest. The toughest questions on the quiz:

What company made the first color arcade game?

What was E.T.’s favorite candy?

What was the first video ever to play on MTV?

The answers: Atari, Reese’s Pieces, Video Killed the Radio Star.

Former jockey Mark Irving, now an Earl of tourism at Canterbury, escorting patron groups throughout the premises, represented a band member from any number of groups in his native England with a stand-up, razor-sharp Mohawk cut.

Mark Irving

And video producer Jon Mikkelson, in a Dino Ciccarelli jersey, celebrated the player and team that preceded the Minnesota Wild….the North Stars.

Jake Samuels became a recognizable face in the jockey colony with his memorable remark on Extreme Day after winning the Ostrich race. “Well, it’s nice to win this one,” he said, “because I’m not winning on horses.”

That has changed bit by bit for Samuels who rode another winner Friday night, Skippy’s Strike, who went gate to wire in the fifth race for $15,000 claimers.

“All I had to do was let him go,” he said. “He did the rest. He made it easy.”

And, as it turned out, the location for the Friday’s celebration was

was quite appropriate at that.

After all, it is impossible to celebrate the eighties without a nod to the arrival of horse racing in 1985 at its current location.

Mike Lee

Oracle’s All-Stars : Canterbury Park’s First-Half Review

By The Oracle

Last week we passed the halfway point of the 70-day Canterbury Park live racing season.  Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far in 2018.  The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.

The Odds:

Favorites are winning 37% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2018.  This is right on par with the national average, and one percentage point above the 2017 Canterbury meet.  The claiming category has been the most formful so far this year, yielding 45 winning favorites from 114 races (39%).  However, this category also unleashed the highest priced thoroughbred winner of the meet ($69.00) on May 25 when veteran campaigner Aroney prevailed by a nose at 33-1 over 29-1 second place finisher Ragged Edge.  This 10-year-old gelding making his 94th career start was trained by Tony Rengstorf and ridden by Israel Hernandez.  Congratulations to those connections!

Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track.  This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 34% rate compared to 38% winning favorites on the dirt.

Regarding extreme longshots, there have been nine 20-1 and up winners this year.  Of those nine, five were in turf races and four were on the main track.  This is significant as there are many fewer turf races run than dirt races.  Look for longshots on the Canterbury turf course!

The Jockeys:

Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings so far, the All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Chad Lindsay.  Chad is currently tenth in the standings with 13 wins, and he is returning an impressive $1.29 for every dollar wagered on his mounts.  Lindsay has truly been a longshot rider this meet, as 7 of his 13 wins have come at odds of 8-1 or higher.  Chad was also aboard 3 of those 20-1+ longshot winners this meet as described above.  Horses like that definitely help the ROI!  In a statistical oddity, Lindsay is winless from 7 tries when riding the favorite.  Still, an excellent first-performance from Chad Lindsay.

Dean Butler is also having an excellent meet from an ROI perspective.  Returning from an injury suffered last season, Butler is currently third in the jockey standings with 32 wins.  He is showing a flat bet profit on his mounts, which returned $1.12 for every dollar wagered.  Considering what a known commodity Butler is around Canterbury Park, this is some very good work over the first half of the season.  Butler also is showing an excellent 52%-win rate (14/27) on favorites so far this meet.

Dean Butler

The Trainers:

The top ten trainer list had three trainers showing a positive ROI at the midway mark.  Tim Padilla got the All-Star award with 11 wins from 54 starts, achieving an ROI of $1.31 for every dollar wagered.  He has been dominant in routes on the main track (9/20, ROI = 3.15), and has also had good success in maiden special weight races (3/16, ROI = 1.96).  Minny O’Prado fit both profiles in her maiden victory at 17-1 back on June 14.

Miguel Angel Silva has also had a very good first half, winning 21 races with an ROI of 1.13.  His best category was maiden claiming races, winning with 6 of 26 runners (ROI = 1.55) including a 17-1 winner named Ginger Rose on May 26 in a maiden claiming race on the turf.  Silva has been remarkably consistent on both surfaces, winning at better than a 20% clip on both turf and dirt so far this meet.

David Van Winkle is the third trainer showing a flat bet profit over the first half of the meet.   His 8/48 record is good for ninth in the current standings.  He has been strong in sprints on the main track, winning 4 of 19 starts with an ROI of 1.44 for every dollar wagered.

David Van Winkle

Summary:

That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective.  Notice that most of the leading riders and trainers from a win perspective do not show up high on the ROI list.  The public tends to overbet the leading jockeys and trainers so it pays to keep an open mind.  Good luck in the second half of the meet!

The ROI All-Stars

By The Oracle

We are nearing the halfway point of the 2017 Canterbury Park live racing season.  Here is a look inside-the-numbers at what has transpired on the race track so far..  The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.

The Odds: 

Favorites are winning 35% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park.  This is two percentage points below the national average for this year, and four percentage points below the 2016 Canterbury meet.  A smaller percentage of winning favorites can lead to larger payoffs!  The maiden special weight category has been the most formful so far, yielding 16 winning favorites from 36 races (44%).  However, this category also unleashed a 55-1 longshot winner on May 6, a horse named Lookin Ata Runaway.  This filly was making her first start as a 3-year-old, was trained by Tony Rengstorf and ridden by Jareth Loveberry.  Congratulations to those connections!

Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track.  This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 30% rate compared to 36% winning favorites on the dirt.

Regarding extreme longshots, there have been nine 20-1 and up winners this year.  Of those nine, four were in turf races and five were on the main track.  This is significant as there are many fewer turf races run than dirt races.  Look for longshots on the Canterbury turf course!

The Jockeys:

Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings so far, the All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Jareth Loveberry.  Jareth is currently tied for the lead in the standings with Orlando Mojica with 31 wins, and he is returning an impressive $1.23 for every dollar wagered on his mounts.  Loveberry is a new rider to Canterbury Park this year, and the fans may have been focusing more on the established local names like Dean Butler and Alex Canchari.  Loveberry has done his best work on the main track this year, winning 26 of his 31 races on that surface, including that 55-1 longshot discussed above.  Horses like that definitely help the ROI!

Orlando Mojica is also having an excellent meet.  Mojica did very well last year in his first season at Canterbury Park, and he has continued to excel this year.  He is winning at a 22% rate over the turf course (11/50) and is showing a flat bet profit on that surface of 31%.

Alex Canchari deserves a mention as his 21% win percentage is best among the top ten riders.  Due to injury, Alex has had fewer mounts than the jockeys atop the standings, but he could be poised for a strong second half of the meet.  Alex was especially reliable with favorites in the first half, winning at a 44% rate (12/27), and he is quite capable of going on a tear and getting in contention for leading rider.

The Trainers:

The top ten trainer list had three trainers achieving a positive ROI at the midway mark.  Tony Rengstorf got the All-Star award with 12 wins from 67 starts, achieving an ROI of $1.80 for every dollar wagered.  This was due mainly to the 55-1 winner on May 6 described above.  He has excelled in dirt sprints (10/39, ROI = $2.87) and maiden races (5/18, ROI = $4.73), but is currently 0/12 on the turf.  Seven of those turf runners did finish in the top 3, however.

Francisco Bravo has also had a very good first half, winning 16 races with an ROI of $1.23.  His best category was claiming races, winning with 5 of 20 runners (ROI = $2.29) including a 20-1 winner named Awesome Emmit on June 30 in a claiming race that was moved from the turf to the main track.  Jockey Quincy Hamilton was aboard that one.  Bravo has also done extremely well in maiden claiming races, winning with 5 of 9 runners (56%) for an ROI of $2.12.

McLean Robertson has been the dominant trainer this year at Canterbury Park, as his 29 wins from 114 starters nearly doubles the win total of the second-place trainer in the standings.  Not only is Robertson leading in terms of win percentage (25%), he is also showing an ROI of $1.10 for every dollar wagered on each of his starters.  That’s a rare achievement for a trainer who is so well known by the local bettors.  Robertson is winning the big money races too, as 22 of his 29 wins have come in Allowance or Stakes races.  He even slipped a 23-1 shot past the crowd on July 3, when Teddy Time ran down A.P is Loose to win the Blair’s Cove Stakes on the turf with Quincy Hamilton aboard.  That was an easy name play exacta box for Vikings fans!

Summary:

That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective.  Good luck in the second half of the meet!

 

Photo provided by Coady Photography

Canterbury Park First Half All-Stars

Canterbury Park

by The Oracle

We have reached the halfway point of the 2016 Canterbury Park live racing season.  It’s a better bet for the players this year with the lowest blended takeout rates in the country, and players who had previously not played Canterbury Park are taking a look this year.  Here is a look inside-the-numbers at what has transpired on the race track so far in 2016.  The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.

The Odds:       

Favorites are winning 39% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2016, which equals the winning favorites from the first half last season.  However, last year the favorites struggled in the second half of the year, and by season’s end they were only winning at a 34% rate for the entire meet.  I do expect the fewer winning favorites over the second half of the meet.  The claiming race category has been the most formful so far this year, yielding 49 winning favorites from 110 races (45%) and returning a flat bet profit of $1.04 for every dollar wagered.

Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track.  This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 35% rate compared to 41% winning favorites on the dirt.  Again, those numbers are both likely to decrease in the second half of the meet.

The Jockeys:

Looking at the top 10 jockeys in the standings so far, the All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Orlando Mojica.  Orlando is currently 6th in the standings with 15 wins, but he is returning an impressive $1.05 for every dollar wagered on his mounts.  Orlando also earned his 2,000th career victory at Canterbury Park recently, so it’s been a memorable season for the “Magic Man”!

Dean Butler certainly deserves a mention as he leads the jockey standings with 44 wins from 200 mounts thus far.  Butler is a very well-known rider at Canterbury Park, having won several riding titles over the years.  His horses take serious action at the windows, which makes it tough to profit long term from his winners.  Butler was very reliable on favorites in the first half with 20 wins from 44 tries (45%) with an ROI of $1.07.  Conversely, you might want to avoid his horses that are not getting any wagering action.  At odds of 8-1 and up, Butler is 1/56 so far this year with the lone winner in that sample paying $19.40.  Tread lightly there…

The Trainers:

The top 10 trainer list had three trainers achieving a positive ROI at the midway mark.  Nevada Litfin got the All-Star award with 11 wins from 44 starts, achieving an ROI of $1.32.  He excelled in claiming races (7/15, ROI = $1.95) and turf sprints (4/8, ROI = $1.63), but was only 1/28 at odds of 8-1 and above.

Michael Biehler has also had a very good first half, winning 10 races with an ROI of $1.18.  His best category was turf sprints, winning with 4 of 12 runners including a 26-1 winner named Kenna Mae in a maiden turf sprint with Lori Keith aboard.  Kenna Mae, a 3-year-old filly, was making her turf debut and sprinted clear from the rail early, cruising to a six length victory.

Bernell Rhone had a strong first half this year also, winning 14 races and achieving a flat bet profit of $1.14.  Rhone had two big longshot winners in the maiden claiming ranks, one on the turf and one on the main track that both paid over 20-1 odds.  His longshot turf winner was a 7-year-old first time starter named Bourbonnais, ridden by Israel Hernandez who was ignored by the public at 26-1 on the board.  Bourbonnais is a War Chant gelding out of an Easy Goer mare, and was the best bred horse in the race.  However, not starting until age 7 threw the public off the scent!  His main track longshot winner was 4-year-old So Blue, moving from turf to dirt and ridden by Martin Escobar.  She had been well beaten in two turf races, but had shown early speed in her debut on the main track and was dropping in class from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

It’s instructive to note that the top two trainers this year, Mac Robertson and Robertino Diodoro, are both below $0.80 ROI despite their many wins.  It’s tough to make money betting the top trainers.  However, Robertson’s horses are performing quite well as favorites so far (18/37, ROI $1.02) but not well as longshots (0/21 at 8-1 and up).

Summary:

That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective.  Good luck the rest of the way!