Kevin Gorg Handicaps the 2019 Academy Awards

Kevin Gorg, Fox Sports North personality and former Canterbury Park racing analyst, does not miss many movies.

He is as opinionated about film and actors as he is about a horse race.

Over the years he has offered his Academy Awards selections along with his betting line. Gorg has been remarkably good (and occasionally off the mark), but always provides useful insight for your office pool.

Here is a look at his odds for the 91st Academy Awards, held this Sunday, Feb. 24.

Best Picture

“Green Book” — terrific movie that mixes the horrific history of prejudice in this country and well-timed humor… slight lean here. 5/2

“A Star Is Born” — my favorite flick of the year by far (I’ve seen it nine times). The acting is powerful and the music is amazing but likely won’t win because Hollywood doesn’t respect remakes.  7/2

“Roma” — the betting favorite in Vegas is a foreign language film that is getting a ton of buzz. I haven’t seen this one but you must respect the noise around it.  9/2

“Bohemian Rhapsody” — another movie that I went to see multiples times. The story of how Queen came to be and the remarkable journey of their lead singer Freddie Mercury with all the fixings, which include not just the music but some cool concert experiences… 6-1 (Sneaky longshot.)

“The Favourite” — dark comedy that had its moments for certain but I’m not sure the juice was worth the squeeze.  15-1

“Black Panther” — of all the Oscar-nominated movies I think I enjoyed this one the least. More special effects and the story just did not grab me… Many enjoyed this one but it wasn’t for me.  25-1

“BlacKkKlansman” — now this was a movie I really loved seeing, making fun of the KKK and doing it in a very entertaining way. It was a true story, by the way, which makes it even more hilarious… well worth seeing and deserves to be in the mix.  30-1

“Crazy Rich Asians” — another beautiful movie that combines solid humor and a story that is worth investing your emotions, too. Likely an outsider when it comes to bringing home the hardware but another movie I think everyone enjoyed seeing.  40-1

“If Beale Street Could Talk” — if you are looking for a big longshot that might outrun the odds this one is it. A love story with a twist and the acting in this one is top shelf. Long odds to win because it really has been under the radar but a damn good flick.  50-1

The Field — all others are super longshots and likely have no shot. The one not listed that I enjoyed the most was “Vice,” which had many, many laughs and the actors looked and sounded like the famous politicians they were playing.  100-1

Best Actress

Glen Close in “The Wife” — don’t get me wrong, she did a fantastic job in this one; the movie and performance were great but the reason she wins is because Hollywood loves repeat winners (see the history with Meryl Streep). Overwhelming chalk here but not my favorite performance.  3/5

Lady Gaga in “A Star Is Born” — this young lady is amazingly talented and showed some real skills in this movie. She actually made us believe she was some nobody and then transformed into who she really is in real life (a legit star). The emotional range she showed acting and the chemistry with Bradley Cooper jumped off the screen. She should win but likely won’t… 3-1

Olivia Colman in “The Favorite” — like this movie I get that this performance was solid… just not in the same class as the top two.  25-1

Emily Blunt in “Mary Poppins Returns” — tough to take this role and be compared to the legendary original. I love this gal but a huge longshot in this deep and talented group.  50-1

The Field — many solid performances in this bunch maybe led by Nicole Kidman in “Boy Erased.” The top ladies here just are too good… 100-1

Best Actor

Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody” — absolutely stunning performance. He should crush in this category… Best Bet.  1/5

Bradley Cooper in “A Star Is Born” — any other year he likely takes this one home. He was damn good but his best was second best here.  9/2

Christian Bale in “Vice” — can’t believe how much he looked and sounded like Dick Cheney. Solid job done here for sure.  15-1

Viggo Mortensen in “Green Book” — another performance that might get over shadowed this year but deserves a mention.  40-1

The Field — all others are likely no match for the top couple in here. Of them John David Washington (BlackKklansman) was best.  50-1

–Kevin Gorg

 

 

Gorg’s Oscar Line for the 87th Academy Awards

Birdman

The Academy Award winners will be announced Sunday in a procession of pageantry, pomp, and a heavy dose of circumstance. As is the case with any contest, Kevin Gorg, prognosticator extraordinaire, must have action. Annually, Gorg shares his Oscar odds with CanterburyLive.com readers.  Last year he nailed the top picture, 12 Years a Slave,  while totally dismissing Gravity.  His opinion for top honors as Best Picture is not as strong as last year but he again is tossing out a film that many have already declared the best of the year.

Here is a look:

BEST PICTURE>
BOYHOOD 5/2
AMERICAN SNIPER 5-1
THE IMITATION GAME  8-1
SELMA   15-1
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING  30-1
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL 40-1
BIRDMAN or (THE UNEXPECTED VIRTUE OF IGNORANCE)  50-1
WHIPLASH 100-1

Whoaaaaaaaa!   Birdman, darling of many critics, at 50 to 1?

You can’t be serious KG.

“While Birdman was solid it has zero chance of winning,” he says.

To further assist with your Oscar office pool here are Gorg’s winners in other categories.

BEST ACTOR>
EDDIE REDMAYNE (THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING) 4/5
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH (THE IMITATION GAME)  9/5
BRADLEY COOPER (AMERICAN SNIPER) 9/2
MICHAEL KEATON (BIRDMAN) 10-1
STEVE CARELL (FOXCATCHER) 50-1

 

BEST ACTRESS>
JULIANNE MOORE (STILL ALICE)  1/5
ALL OTHERS (FIELD)  20-1

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR>
J. K. SIMMONS (WHIPLASH) 1/5
ED NORTON (BIRDMAN) 10-1
MARK RUFFALO (FOXCATCHER) 25-1
ETHAN HAWKE (BOYHOOD) 40-1
ROBERT DUVALL (THE JUDGE) 50-1

SUPPORTING ACTRESS>
PATRICIA ARQUETTE (BOYHOOD) 1/5
EMMA STONE (BIRDMAN) 10-1
MERYL STREEP (INTO THE WOODS) 25-1
KIERA KNIGHTLEY(THE IMITATION GAME) 40-1
LAURA DERN (WILD) 50-1

Enjoy the Academy Awards.

EmmaStone

Road to Kentucky & Oscar Odds

side_oscarThe Road to Kentucky Handicapping contest continues this week with races from the Fair Grounds plus an additional bonus race – The Fountain of Youth from Gulfstream. Post time and entry deadline is 12:30pm.

We called on racing analyst Angela Hermann for her thoughts on the Derby prep races. Angela is currently serving as analyst at Hawthorne Race Course and will return to Canterbury for the spring and summer.

The Fountain of Youth:

There are some questions to be answered in this race, but certainly not by Violence. Unfortunately, he’s the only Grade 1 or Grade 2 winner entered, and off his smashing CashCall win should end up in the neighborhood of 1-5. Based on his three starts thus far he deserves those puny odds, especially after handling Breeders’ Cup runner-up He’s Had Enough the way that he did. Give Speak Logistics another chance to redeem himself and turn the tables on Falling Sky, as he was shut off cold on the rail while making his move past the latter and raced evenly from that point. He’s Had Enough has shown flashes of talent capable of competing with Violence, but needs to show he can put it together in the afternoon the way he does in the morning. At least his pilot and partner in crime Lava Man join him for the journey east, but 9 lengths are a lot to make up on a horse as sharp as Violence.

The Risen Star:

Contention runs much deeper in the Risen Star, but this capacity cast are an interesting bunch from a pace standpoint. Oxbow could get a very similar trip to the Lecomte but was that race really that good? If your answer is no then the options are many, but not many are stakes proven. Though it wasn’t a fast race, Proud Strike’s maiden win was a blowout from the outside post. He draws the rail for the ‘Star, and if Gary Stevens really does fly out to ride him you know he’ll utilize that ground-saving post while the rest will surely have to cover a bit extra in a fourteen horse field. Code West represents the Baffert brigade, but has lost to a couple of his stablemates in his last three races, and was tooth-and-nail at 1/5 to beat Dr. Spin in his only career win. A piece seems more likely for the son of Lemon Drop Kid. Of course Oxbow will be one to run down, but stretching-out Palace Malice probably won’t let him out of his sights. Give the son of Curlin a big chance in his first try around two turns for Todd Pletcher.

Bombs at the Gate

Last week Golden Gate was the contest track. The perception seems to be that Russell Baze wins every race and the prices are always short. Baze did boot home three winners in the nine-race card. He won the opener paying $2.80. Race two was his at an $11.00 mutuel and he won race 4 and paid $5.40. An average day for The Muscle.

Four races produced winners that paid more than $20 including Dice Flavor in the double-point El Camino Real and ultra-bomber Flying Marine in race three at $90.60.

Last week’s winner, Kimberly Larson, amassed an impressive 2046 points to win the $500 wagering card.

Oscar Odds

Sunday night is the 85th Academy Awards. Oscar pools and side bets are a staple for many Oscar viewers. And why wouldn’t they be?

Success in these pools hinge on nailing obscure categories like Best Makeup, Costume Design etc and Short Film but the major categories draw all the attention.

Argo is the prohibitive favorite for Best Picture at 1 to 7. Voters likely make up for snubbing Ben Affleck in the Best Director category and send it in on Argo. Lincoln is a sneaky mid-priced possibility at 5 to 1 and longshot players lean toward Silver Linings Playbook at 25 to 1.

Daniel Day Louis is 1/50 for Best Actor. Simple formula: Play Lincoln with Spielberg directing and receive Oscar.

Best Actress is contentious. Jennifer Lawrence is the 1 to 2 favorite while Jessica Chastain is 4 to 1. Chastain won the Golden Globe for Best Actress -Drama. Lawrence won for Best Actress – Comedy/Musical. Chastain’s film, Zero Dark Thirty has some content issues with Hollywood types but it was a superior movie technically and her performance brilliant. Play.

This blog was written by Canterbury Media Relations Manager Jeff Maday. Maday has filled multiple positions including Media Relations and Player Relations Manager since the track reopened in 1995.