Road to Kentucky Week 6

by The Oracle

Contest action moves to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel Stakes. The contest leader board was shaken up quite a bit last week so congratulations if you were able to move way up with all the longshots coming in. Oaklawn favorites are winning a below average 26% this year so it’s time to toss the favorites right out of the mix and play the bombers! The Rebel should be very interesting with The Factor and Sway Away shipping in from California as the top two morning line favorites. My initial thought was that The Factor wouldn’t make the distance, but his form on paper does look very strong. I ended up picking against him due to the projected short price. Checking out the top of the overall standings it should be noted that women are occupying 7 of the top 10 spots. That’s impressive considering the low percentage of women in the total population of players! Good luck with your selections today.

Race 1: This is a claiming sprint for 3+ at 6f. I selected Arctic Sea (ML 6-1) who ships in from Delta Downs and faces claimers for the first time. He rallies from off the pace.

The Result: Artic Sea rallied from off the pace and drew away at 6-1 over Fly Mr Man (5/2) and Citizen West (18-1). The favorite was the rail horse Banner Cat but he faded at the top of the stretch after making the lead.

Maximum Points: Artic Sea 256
Maximum Score: 256
My Score: 256

Race 2: This is an optional claimer for 4+ at 6f. I selected Will’s Afleet (ML 2-1) who hasn’t been seen since last May at Monmouth when he broke his maiden running a 96 Beyer fig. This race looked chalky to me no matter which direction you looked.

The Result: Silver Magnus won at 2-1 over Henry’s Time (8-1) and Stamp (3-1). Mac Robertson wins the second at Oaklawn!

Maximum Points: Silver Magnus 130
Maximum Score: 386
My Score: 256

Race 3: This is a maiden claimer for 3yo’s at 6f. I selected Noble Rogue (ML 4-1) who appeared quickest early and has been getting into speed duels in his last few races.

The Result: Noble Rogue broke well and drew away down the stretch at 4-1 with Tactical Man (5-1) closing for second and Six Fire third (6-1). The jockey switch and superior early speed got the money.

Maximum Points: Noble Rogue 208
Maximum Score: 594
My Score: 464

Race 4: This is a claimer for 3+ fillies and mares at 1m1/16. I selected Get Back Kat (ML 3-1) who won’t be any price but is lone speed on the sprint to route stretchout. I couldn’t find any price play in here.

The Result: Sing a Few Bars with Quinonez aboard wired the field at 3-1 over Get Back Kat (7/5) and Bacchante (8-1). It was not a good effort by the favorite, and my analysis of lone speed for Get Back Kat didn’t materialize.

Maximum Points: Sing a Few Bars 146
Maximum Score: 740
My Score: 526

Race 5: This is a claimer for 3+ at 6f. I selected Horizon Point (ML 12-1) who has sharp early speed and is second start off the layoff. The inside posts have been doing well so far!

The Result: Juan Might (7/2) won a close decision over favored Graysonia (4/5) and Horizon Point (13-1) faded to third. A closer got the money in race 5.

Maximum Points: Juan Might 160
Maximum Score: 900
My Score: 588

Race 6: This is an msw for 3yo fillies at 6f. I selected Song of a Siren (ML 10-1) who makes her third start off the layoff and has shown very good early speed in her career despite fading. She has never been able to clear a field and control the early pace but today might be the day.

The Result: Song of a Siren (7-1) won the break and wired the field over Canadian Mistress (3-1) and Finest Crystal (3-1). Great early speed today for Song of a Siren!

Maximum Points: Song of a Siren 272
Maximum Score: 1,172
My Score: 860

Race 7: This is a claimer for 3+ fillies and mares at 6f. The early speed theory has been holding up pretty well today and I selected Sophanda (ML 5-1) who has speed and makes her third start off the layoff. Trying to keep the good vibe rolling!

The Result: Speed and the rail look strong today as Soulful Sinner (3-1) dashed wire to wire from post 1 over Wild Oration (5-1) and Sophanda (4-1).

Maximum Points: Soulful Sinner 168
Maximum Score: 1,340
My score: 898

Race 8: This is an optional claimer for 4+ fillies and mares at 6f. I selected Glowing Report (ML 6-1) who will be forwardly placed from the outside post for Lukas.

The Result: Eve Giselle (3-1) came back from a 13 month layoff and got the win over Wild Hope (11-1) and Ripe Tomato (14-1). There were good prices underneath but nothing has blown up the contest on the win end yet!

Maximum Points: Eve Giselle 178
Maximum Score: 1,518
My Score: 898

Race 9: This is the Grade 3 Azeri for 4+ fillies and mares at 1m1/16. I selected Tidal Pool (ML 6-1) who should get the early jump on the two big favorites Havre de Grace and Blind Luck.

The Result: Favorites dominated as Havre de Grace (8/5) won decisively over Blind Luck (6/5) and Absinthe Minded (9-1). Tidal Pool ran an even fourth. A great comeback race for Havre de Grace, her first start since the Breeders Cup!!

Maximum Points: Havre de Grace 100
Maximum Score: 1,618
My Score: 898

Race 10: This is the featured Grade 2 Rebel Stakes for 3yos at 1m1/16. The Factor and Sway Away ship in from California with impressive credentials and should be the 1-2 betting choices in here. I selected Archarcharch (ML 8-1) who exits a victory in the Southwest at 14-1. He might not be good enough but he has the look of an improving 3yo and he has local experience.

The Result: The Factor raced wire to wire and was never challenged at 7/5. Calebs Posse was up for second at 24-1 and Archarcharch held on for the show. Calebs Posse got the most contest points for his second place finish. The Factor was very impressive today as he answered some questions about his ability to go two turns! Calebs Posse was playable off the tough trip he suffered in the Southwest when he was shut down on the inside and never got to run.

Maximum Points: Calebs Posse 420
Maximum Score: 2,038
My Score: 982

Race 11: The nightcap is a maiden claimer for 3yos at 6f. I selected Inhopewearesaved (ML 6-1) who showed speed going a route in his last start and drops in class.

The Result: Inhopewearesaved stalked the early leader and got home in time at 7-1 over Semiconductor (7/2) and Mississippi Money (4-1). The dropper got the money in the lucky last.

Maximum Points: Inhopewearesaved 276
Maximum Score: 2,314
My Score: 1,258

Summary: Not a huge amount of available points this week so that bodes well for those who were already near the top. The Factor was clearly superior to the Rebel field so Baffert will have to decide where to go next…the Arkansas Derby? Calebs Posse was the biggest point horse of the day so combining him with a few of those mid-range price horses puts you right on the money. See you next week!

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