Road to Kentucky Week 2

Tampa Bay should be an opportunity for some big points today with 12 races in play, plus the bonus race from Golden Gate. Some of us, namely me, need to make up some ground after last week! I focused on middle to outside post positions based on how I perceive the Tampa surface to be playing this year, although I don’t follow it on a daily basis.

Race 1: My selection: Mr. Coach ML 12-1.

The Result: Premier Take scores from the outside at 7/2 as longshot Del Pilot gets the most points for running second. Magic Carpet Glide sprinted clear early and held third. Mr Coach faded early and ran last at 10-1!

Maximum Points: Del Pilot 230
Maximum Score: 230
My Score: 0

Race 2: My selection: Jean the Queen ML 3-1.

The Result: Maiden special weight dropper and layoff horse Put Me First scored at 9/2 with Unseen Glory second and first time starter Makelifework ran third. Put Me First was very playable as she had flashed early speed as a two-year old and was dropping in class. Ronnie Allen Jr was up for the score. My selection Jean the Queen with leading rider Centeno was sluggish early and ran evenly, finishing fifth.

Maximum Points: Put Me First 242
Maximum Score: 472
My Score: 0

Race 3: My selection: Conchacer ML 2-1.

The Result: Conchacer stalked wide and ran down a game Begriff to score by a neck. Curragh Mon finished third. Relatively few points available in this formful race.

Maximum Points: Conchacer 84
Maximum Score: 556
My Score: 84

Race 4: My selection: Cryptogram ML 5-1.

The Result: Favored Otis Ridge narrowly defeated my top choce in a long drive with Onotheregoestokyo running third. An objection was lodged against the third place finisher foe interference down the stretch but it was not allowed. Kirk Ziadie remains on fire! My selection ran very well at 8-1 but couldn’t get the money.

Maximum Points: Cryptogram 122
Maximum Score: 678
My Score: 206

Race 5: My Selection: Mr. Flatter ML 5-1

The Result: Mr. Flatter dueled and scored by a nose on the wire over hard charging Stormin Yank. Long layoff horse Hi Time Scott ran third. Favored Tytus never got untracked from the rail. Mr Flatter was a generous 5-1 after facing much tougher at Gulfstream Park in his last start. The early speed held this time.

Maximum Points: Mr. Flatter 238
Maximum Score: 916
My Score: 444

Race 6: My selection: No Use Denying ML 5/2.

The Result: Even money No Use Denying looked like the stone cold winner turning for home but he was run down late by Gdansking Queen at 4-1. Clement continues his red hot ways at Tampa! The Lady Waffles was up for third. No excuse for No Use Denying in this one.

Maximum Points: Gdansking Queen 176
Maximum Score: 1,092
My Score: 504

Race 7: My selection: Boots Are Walking ML 4-1.

The Result: Custer rallied and scored at 5/2, defeating Chief Talkeetna and Mannington. My selection was on the lead turning for home at 5-1, but offered nothing down the stretch. Mannington had some trouble as the favorite down on the inside.

Maximum Points: Custer 148
Maximum Score: 1,240
My score: 504

Race 8: My selection: Sweet Repent ML 7/2.

The Result: Rock Candy ran a huge one at 4-1, defeating Ameribelle and the favorite Don’t Forget Gil. My selection Sweet Repent never made the lead like I hoped and ran very poorly. Don’t Forget Gil had some trouble and closed strongly for third. He may have been best.

Maximum Points: Rock Candy 186
Maximum Score: 1,426
My Score: 504

Race 9: My selection: Stormy West ML 7/2.

The Result: Stormy West had some trouble and the favorite Ginger Brew failed to fire. Instead it was Ballymore Lady at 6-1 getting up late over a very game Elusive Lady who led to deep stretch. Sousaphone ran third at 45-1.

Maximum Points: Ballymore Lady 256
Maximum Score: 1,682
My Score: 504

Race 10: My selection: Cliffy’s Future ML 10-1.

The Result: The big favorite Free Country disappointed and finished fourth, as 13-1 longshot General Quarters stalked in second early and scored easily. Longshot Sumo at 30-1 finished second and Musket Man ran third. Cliffy’s Future….hello? It’s not on the Derby trail after that performance. I think he just finished. General Quarters had finished second in his last two starts behind race rivals Musket Man and Top Seed. He has blossomed into a nice one for trainer Mark Miller. General Quarters debuted at Churchill Downs in a $20K maiden claiming race at 4.5 furlongs and was claimed . He won that race at odds of 4/5.

Maximum Points: General Quarters 960
Maximum Score: 2,642
My Score: 504

Race 11: My selection: Victorianna ML 10-1.

The Result: Victorianna had the perfect stalking trip but her best was third best today as Bucky’s Prayer stalked and scored at 4-1 from the rail post. Favored Silver Envoy finished second.

Maximum Points: Bucky’s Prayer 180
Maximum Score: 2,822
My Score: 548

Race 12: My selection: Bankers High Yield ML 6-1.

The Result: Second choice Teuton rallied to win it over Bullet From Abroad and Heaven’s Reward. Bullet From Abroad was worth the most contest points with his second place finish. Bankers High Yield? Ran like the banking industry has been running lately. Diseased….

Maximum Points: Bullet From Abroad 214
Maximum Score: 3,036
My Score: 548

Golden Gate Race 8: My selection: Rendezvous ML 6-1.

The Result: Heavily favored Chocolate Candy scored at 1-2 odds for the Hollendorfer/Baze connection. Massone grabbed second and Rendezvous finished third. Rendezvous loomed at the top of the stretch but flattened out at 11-1 odds. This was the “other” Hollendorfer horse. Playing the larger price of an “uncoupled entry is an angle I like to play that has a 2% success rate when I play it and a 50% success rate when I don’t.

Maximum Points: Chocolate Candy 146
Maximum Score: 3,182
My Score: 612

Summary: The play of the day was to tab General Quarters in the featured Sam Davis to win at 13-1 odds. That pick was worth nearly 1/3 of the available points today. Other than that, it was a pretty formful day. As a rule of thumb, if you can get about 2/3 of the maximum points on any given day, you should be right near the top. I would expect the winning score to be somewhere around 2,000 points this week. Congratulations to everyone who found General Quarters today! See you next week.

The Oracle

3 thoughts on “Road to Kentucky Week 2”

  1. For those of you don’t me I was Dr. Dan at Running Aces, but have now moved on to bigger and better things. Hopefully, at Canterbury.I run three blogs, I posted daily picks and selections on my original blog that I did for your competitor.Now I am blogging on behalf of Canterbury Park. Not with their permission of course, but for them in general. I posted my Road to Kentucky selections on my personak blog..http://drdansdailydose.blogspot.comNow I have created a blog just for loyal Canterbury bettors.http://canterburyreport.blogspot.comMy intent is to post daily picks and selections as often as I can. Starting this week I will be posting for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday every week.Here is the link to my selections from Week 2 of the RTK.http://drdansdailydose.blogspot.com/2009/02/road-to-kentucky-week-2.htmlGood luck in Week 3…Jeff, Why Turf Paradise this year??

  2. Well I think it was a good idea… I have been competing in the contest for four years now and my handicapping has developed so much a long the way.I can thank Canterbury for that. I have developed my skills using the Daily Racing Form to a point where I can actually be profitable in this game.I now am using the Ragozin Sheets this year to develop my game to the point where I could possibly become “Handicapper of the Year” at some point in my lifetime.The Rags for those of who have not seen one look like some sort of ancient cipher, but they are an unbelievable tool and I am astonished that more expert handicappers don’t use them. They are very expensive, I don’t get them everyday, but to really track how a horse is racing, they are the best tool in the game.I hope it can keep me near the top over the next few weeks and within striking distance once we hit April.I really went in the tank in April last year after I started working at Aces. I concentrated so much on my work that my handicapping became secondary. What a mistake that was.Best of luck in WEEK 3.

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