Road to Kentucky Week 10

Welcome to the Road to Kentucky blog recap for week 10! Today is the final day at Oaklawn Park and a rematch in the Arkansas Derby between Old Fashioned and Win Willy. Old Fashioned was the early Kentucky Derby favorite before the Rebel when he was defeated by the Mac Robertson trained Win Willy. Papa Clem is another horse to consider coming off a solid second place finish behind Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby. We also have the Blue Grass Stakes today featuring Hold Me Back, Theregoesjojo and Terrain among others. Let’s get down to business!

Race 1: This was a mcl15000 for 3+ at 1m1/16. I took the speed Green Digger (ML 7/2) even though he faltered in his last start. I think he might be lone speed and I will give him another try. The filly Miss Marple is a contender also.

The Result: Condobound at 7-1 rebounded nicely and scored narrowly over favored Miss Marple. Condobound hadn’t run well in his last but he made amends today. My selection set the pace to the top of the stretch but had nothing left.

Maximum Points: Condobound 302
Maximum Score: 302
My Score: 0

Race 2: This was a Clm1000N3L for 3+ at 1m1/16. I selected Sam Black Church (ML 8-1) coming off a nice 2nd place finish where he pressed the pace and held pretty well. It looks pretty wide open, other horses to consider were August Break, Bishop’s Creek and Winner’s Story.

The Result: An Heir of Magic made the lead at 15-1 and just held off August Break at the wire. Prince Hope finished 3rd. An Heir of Magic was very game on the front end today and was making his third start off the layoff.

Maximum Points: An Heir of Magic 550
Maximum Score: 852
My Score: 0

Race 3: This was an OC/20KN1X for 3+ at 5.5f. I selected Hard Rockin Robin (ML 8-1) making his third start off the layoff. He makes his third start off the layoff and has back class. Seneca Summer and Fortunate Jett were also contenders that I liked. I need some points!

The Result: Kissin Child scores the third upset in a row at 19-1. This was his second victory in two career starts after breaking his maiden at Delta Downs. Favored Seneca Summer ran second and Sheriff Hotdog finished third. My selection wasn’t good enough at 14-1 and finished about 6th.

Makimum Points: Kissin Child 630
Maximum Score: 1,482
My Score: 0

Race 4: This was a Clm6250 for 4+ at 1m. I selected Buddha Pass (ML 4-1) He steps up a level in class and rallies from off the pace. Indian Hoss and Smilin’ Del were my other main contenders.

The Result: A quick pace in this one as the leaders carved out a 46.0 half mile. Smilin’ Del got a dream trip and narrowly prevailed at 6/5 over Buddha Pass and Crook’s Bodgit. My selection had every opportunity down the lane but came up a nose short at 7/2.

Maximum Points: Smilin’ Del 100
Maximum Score: 1,582
My Score: 66

Race 5: This was a Clm20000 for fillies and mares 3+ at 6f. I selected Elocution (ML 8-1) who ships in from Fair Grounds and returns from a brief layoff. Asmussen trains this one and Hernandez rides. He opened 5/2 on the board. I also thought Triple mandate had a good shot to win it.

The Result: Triple Mandate got the lead and won it at 2-1 over Ego Mania and Elocution. The top three ran 1-2-3 around the track.

Maximum Points: Triple Mandate 136
Maximum Score: 1,718
My Score: 100

Race 6: This was a Clm20000N2L for 3+ at 1m1/16. I selected Last Martini (ML 8-1) who makes a late run and has been claimed in each of his last two starts. He failed to fire last time out at 6/5 odds. Lac Valentine and Border Cat are the other two contenders I like.

The Result: Putthehammerdown scored at 7-1 with Red Sandy second and Border Cat third. Putthehammerdown was up close early and held off the closers down the lane. My selection never fired at 5-1.

Maximum Points Putthehammerdown 282
Maximum Score: 2,000
My Score: 100

Race 7: This was the 7th running of the Instant Racing 75K for 3yo fillies at 1m. I selected Peach Brew from the outside as she exits a Grade III race and faced Rachel Alexandra two starts back. The crowd likes Payton D’Oro from the Larry Jones barn.

The Result: Payton d’Oro won easily at 3/2 over Mindy Sue and Peach Brew. This filly keeps improving for Larry Jones. My selection just ran evenly and got up for third. Not too exciting!

Maximum Points: Payton d’Oro 112
Maximum Score: 2,112
My score: 130

Race 8: This was an OC 20K/N1X for 3+ at 1m1/16. This one looked wide open on paper and I ended up selecting Earths Vain Shadow (ML 15-1) as he makes his third start off the layoff. He is another horse that will have to make up some ground late. This one is up for grabs.

The Result: Momentarily stalked just off the leaders and scored at 16-1 over Pine Mast and Garburetor. The race was wide open as the favorites were nowhere to be found. My selection never made a move at 30-1.

Maximum Points: Momentarily 610
Maximum Score: 2,722
My Score: 130

The Bluegrass Stakes: Here is the 85th running of the Grade I Blue Grass for 3yo at 1m1/8. I selected Patena (ML 10-1) from the rail as he didn’t fire in the Louisiana Derby but has run well previously over the Polytrack at Woodbine. Dutrow sends him out for the second time and Albarado stays aboard. Patena did finish second behind Friesan Fire two starts back. The crowd favorite is Hold Me Back who just exits a victory on the polytrack at Turfway Park in the Lanes End. Theregoesjojo is the current second choice on the board.

The Result: General Quarters bounced back nicely after his troubled effort in the Tampa Bay Derby to score with authority at 14-1. The positives for the horse were that he had run second at Keeneland previously and he had an outstanding workout at Churchill Downs. Hold Me Back finished second and Massone finished third. Nice handicapping if you found General Quarters today.

Maximum Points: General Quarters 972
Maximum Score: 3,694
My Score: 130

Race 9: This was the 12th running of the Northern Spur for 3yo at 1m. I selected Fufty Too (ML 12-1) from the Robertson barn coming off a good second place finish in a sprint. Bejarano rides . The Asmussen entry is the even money favorite.

The Result: Dance Caller set a fast pace and continued to hold on and won by about ½ length at 8-1. He was stretching out around two turns for the first time today and ran impressively. Uno Mas rallied for second and my selection Fufty Too finished third.

Maximum Points: Dance Caller 294
Maximum Score: 3,988
My Score: 178

Race 10: This was an MSW40k for 3+ at 6f. I selected Watomgo making his second start off the layoff. He ran a much improved race in his last start. Charlie’s Prayer is the favorite and Eastwood Dacat also looked good on paper.

The Result: Pacific Star had a lot of horse and got a very nice ride from Gryder as he won it up the rail at 5-1. The favorite Charlie’s Prayer ran second and Watongo was third.

Maximum Points: Pacific Star 216
Maximum Score: 4,204
My Score: 210

Race 11: This is the featured 73rd running of the Arkansas Derby for 3yo at 1m1/8. It is the rematch between Old Fashioned and Win Willy with Papa Clem also thrown into the mix. Those are the three heavy hitters in the race, I selected Old Fashioned (9/5) to bounce back and turn the tables on Win Willy. It should be a great race!

The Result: Old Fashioned got the lead today and went about the same pace as his last two races. Papa Clem had his measure down the stretch and scored at 4-1. Old Fashioned barely held second and Summer Bird finished third. Mac Robertson’s Win Willy ended up fourth. Old Fashioned doesn’t appear to be Derby material for 1m1/4 race but Papa Clem will probably go on as he should. I don’t believe Win Willy will go on at this point but we will see what Robertson decides to do.

Maximum Points: Papa Clem 360
Maximum Score: 4,554
My Score: 314

Race 12: This is the final race of the Oaklawn meet, a 1m3/4 marathon for 4+. My last chance to pick a winner today I selected the entry (ML 7/2) which includes front running Atrevido Bandito. He will try to set a slow pace and steal it on the front end. The favorite is Big Slew with Tim Doocy aboard.

The Result: Hello? The better half of the entry I picked took about two steps out of the gate and refused to run. Minimast ended up winning it at 6-1 with Big Slew second and Sea Gaze. That’s it for Oaklawn this meet!

Maximum Points: Minimast 268
Maximum Score: 4,822
My Score: 314

Summary: The biggest point scorer today was General Quarters in the Blue Grass Stakes so congratulations if you found him! There were several longshots at Oaklawn as well which added up to the high maximum point total today. The Arkansas Derby was pretty formful with the second favorite beating the favorite. It looks like Papa Clem will go to the Derby and we will have to wait and see about the others. I couldn’t find a single winner today which was pretty frustrating. Add a zero to the end of my score and that’s about where the winner will be this week. See you next week!

The Oracle

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