Temperatures have dropped just a little bit, but early speed is still money on the Canterbury main track. The track bias for the last month shows dirt sprints yielding wire to wire winners at a 45% clip, which is unchanged from the previous sample. Wire to wire winners in dirt routes have dropped from 45% to a 32% win rate, and turf races are slightly up, yielding 28% front running winners over the past month. All these numbers are well above national averages!
Speed continues to dominate, especially in dirt sprints.
Favorites are holding steady, finding the winners circle 43% of the time in thoroughbred races with an ROI of $0.96 for every dollar wagered. Dirt sprints continue to provide the highest percentage of winning favorites (47%, ROI $1.00) although the numbers are dropping slightly. Dirt routes are next at 39% and $0.93 and these numbers are also down from the previous sample. Turf races are yielding 33% winning favorites and $0.87 return on every dollar wagered, which is very similar to previous figures.
The win percentage of favorites was bound to drop off as they were extremely high for the first half of the meet. They continue to be well above normal win percentages for favorites.
The Odds: A Further Breakdown
We already know that favorites have been winning 43% of the races at Canterbury Park this summer. Here is some additional data regarding final odds of winning horses at Canterbury for the 2012 meet. In addition to favorites doing well, it is also true that extreme longshots have done very poorly.
• Approximately two-thirds of the races have won by horses paying 3-1 or less.
• Only 16 winners (<5%) have paid 10-1 odds or higher (10 main track and 6 turf).
• 45% of the starters go off at 10-1 or higher odds and they represent less than 5% of the winners.
• 23% of the starters go off at 20-1 or higher odds and they represent less than 1% of the winners.
• Horses at or above 20-1 are a combined 1 for 466 on the main track.
• Horses at or above 10-1 in dirt routes are a combined 2 for 181.
It is worth noting that what HAS happened in the past doesn’t necessarily mean that it will continue to happen in the future. A significant change in the way the track is playing could produce some crazy longshot results. And recently there was a 50-1 winner on the turf course that may have been a reasonable contender in some people’s minds. But I think it’s important to know that we have only had a 10-1 or higher winner about once every three racing days on average in 2012. Plan accordingly!
This blog was written by Canterbury Regular “The Oracle”. The Oracle is a longtime Minnesota race fan that has handicapped Canterbury’s races religiously for more than 20 years. He writes about handicapping and statistical trends in Canterbury’s races.
Photo Credit: Coady Photography