by The Oracle
Before racing took a short break for the summer concerts, we passed the halfway point of the 2019 Canterbury Park live racing season. Here is a look inside-the-numbers- at what has transpired on the race track so far in 2019. The following statistics are for thoroughbred races only.
The Odds:
Favorites are winning 36% of the thoroughbred races at Canterbury Park so far in 2019. This is two percentage points lower than the national average, and one percentage point below the 2018 Canterbury meet. Fewer winning favorites can mean more lucrative payouts! The maiden claiming category has been the most formful so far this year, yielding 20 winning favorites from 44 races (45%). The least formful category so far has been the maiden special weight races, with 13 winning favorites from 49 races (27%). This category also yielded the highest priced winner of the meet so far when 32-1 Sink The Bismarck stunned a field of maidens going a flat mile on the main track. Sink The Bismarck had exited a second-place finish sprinting in a maiden claiming race, and handled the stretch-out and the rise in class with no problem. He was trained by Bruce Riecken and ridden by Eddie Martin Jr. Congratulations to the connections of Sink The Bismarck for that stunning upset!
Historically, turf racing at Canterbury Park has yielded a lower percentage of winning favorites than races on the main track. This is holding true this year, as favorites on the turf are winning at a 28% rate compared to 39% winning favorites on the dirt.
Regarding extreme longshots, there have been seven 20-1 and up winners this year. Longshot winners create giant payoffs, but it’s important to pick your spots. Playing all longshots over 20-1 to win at Canterbury Park this year would have returned only 51-cents for every dollar wagered.
The Jockeys:
Looking at the top ten jockeys in the standings, the All-Star performer for best return-on-investment (ROI) was Jareth Loveberry. Jareth is currently fourth in the standings with 28 wins, and he is returning an impressive $1.26 for every dollar wagered on his mounts. Loveberry shows 22 of his 28 wins on the main track, and he has been particularly good in off-track sprints with a 33%-win rate, including a $52 winner. Jareth has 5 winners that paid 8-1 or higher and all of those longshot wins were on the main track. An excellent first half performance from Jareth Loveberry!
Honorable mentions go out to Eddie Martin Jr. and Santiago Gonzalez, who posted first half ROI’s of 1.12 and 1.11, respectively. Eddie has made this list before and tends to find the Mystic Lake Winner’s Circle with longshot winners every year!
The Trainers:
It’s no surprise that Robertino Diodoro and Mac Robertson are dominating the trainer standings once again. However, they are known commodities that the public gravitates towards, and their respective ROI’s in the first half of this season were only 0.86 and 0.76.
The All-Star award goes to Francisco Bravo, who is returning a generous $1.60 for every dollar wagered on his horses. Of his 13 winners, 4 of them have been at 8-1 or higher and he has been equally strong on both dirt and turf. Claiming races have been his best category as he is 6/24 (25%) with an ROI of 1.93. Congratulations to Francisco Bravo for an excellent first half to the 2019 season!
Honorable mentions go out to Tony Rengstorf (1.37), Jose Silva, Jr. (1.22), Joel Berndt (1.04) and Mike Biehler (1.03) as they all had first half success for the betting public!
Summary:
That’s a brief look at how the favorites fared and who the top jockeys and trainers were over the first half of the Canterbury Park live meet from an ROI perspective. Notice that most of the leading riders and trainers from a win perspective do not show up high on the ROI list. The public tends to overbet the leading jockeys and trainers so it pays to keep an open mind. Good luck in the second half of the meet!
