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BC Notes (originally posted 11/1/2007)

by Jerod Dinkin

-War Pass, impressive in victory will be the victim of too much, too soon (113 Beyer in the Juvenile). How often have we seen young horses run out their minds in one or two efforts never to be heard from again? This need the lead type is exactly the kind of overrated Triple Crown prospect that always disappoints. The over/under for his retirement is March 30, 2008.
-I twice made the proclamation that English Channel was the worst 5:2 morning line in the history of the Breeders’ Cup (5:1 seemed more reasonable to me at the time). There is nothing quite like eating a hardy helping of humble pie. I could blame the ground, but I won’t. The BC makes good handicappers look bad and bad handicappers look worse. I’m trying to find a word to describe how bad my prediction was. I’m not smart enough, nor is my vocabulary vast enough to find proper description. How does “poopie” sound?
-I found myself chasing too many prices in the 11 BC races. Sometimes, it is best to take what the race gives you. It’s easy to get overly cute, especially when the favorites are filled with uncertainty (first time around two turns, attempting sloppy or soft conditions for the first time, and/or coming back off a huge career best effort are three such scenarios).
-Although I rarely play Superfectas, the dime minimum seemingly had the effect of eroding value. Across the board, those Super payouts were horribly low.
-The GW incident is still lingering in my mind and is tough to get over. It’s part of the game, but immensely sad and difficult to witness. I’d much rather see one of these $15 Million a year spoiled, lazy NBA or MLB jerks break down than any hard trying, thoroughbred athlete that runs their butt off every single race. And yes, I prefer most horses to most humans.
-Someone on the bus ride back to our hotel from Monmouth mentioned that ESPN was showing ample footage of horses breaking down from big races of the past. I have no idea whether this is true, but if it is, deplorable doesn’t even begin to describe it. This is not NASCAR. The human and equine athletes have precious little safety mechanisms in place. Rubbernecking is an unfortunate by-product of American culture. I just hope that this rumor is false and the production crew wasn’t as blatantly irresponsible to have shown such footage.
-With all of the pre-BC mention of “trends” as is the case prior to the Derby, the only important outcome is the end of day ROI.
-Monmouth is a very nice track…..Those of you that make Saratoga a yearly summer destination should find a way to work in this jewel of the Jersey Shore. One quick bit of advice: Should you drive from any of the NY Metro airports to Oceanport, NJ for a trip to Monmouth Park, bring a helmet, plenty of change for the tolls, and your middle fingers.
-Congrats to Jeff Maday for giving out longshot winner Lahudood in the BC Filly and Mare Turf. Jeff also has been a big Cobalt Blue fan for quite sometime. He picked Cobalt Blue early in his three year old career as the 2007 Derby champ. Although that never came about, Cobalt Blue won a nice undercard race on Saturday at Monmouth at 12:1.
-I’ve been a huge fan of Kip Deville since last December, when he beat the deepest field of three year old turf milers of 2006 on the opening day at Santa Anita. This was back in the good old days when they races on a surface you kids wouldn’t know about called, “dirt”. I waited all year to get a good price on him, but was doing so poorly on the other BC races that I wagered much less than I normally would. The moral of the story is a good lesson in money management. The BC is no different than any other day–Always spend the most money on your strongest opinions. Pass on races that you don’t feel strongly about…Easier said then done on Breeders’ Cup day(s), but an expensive learning experience.