Opening day of the 2026 Canterbury Park live racing meet is Saturday, May 23! That means it’s time to look back at the 2025 Canterbury Park live meet from a statistical standpoint and use that data to help us better predict the outcomes of the 2026 Canterbury Park races.
Canterbury Park will continue to offer an industry low 10% takeout on their Pick 5 each day and will be running a regular schedule of Thursday and Saturday evening, and Sunday afternoon. It pays to play the Pick 5 at Canterbury Park!
Here’s a look at some final statistics for the thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park in 2025, as we prepare to unlock the 2026 Canterbury Park handicapping puzzle. Good luck in 2026!
The Favorite
The public correctly selected the winner 42% of the time in all thoroughbred races run at Canterbury Park last year. That was 3-percentage points above the national average for winning favorites at all racetracks in North America in 2025, and 5-percentage points higher than the Canterbury Park win percentage for favorites in 2024. As the sport has evolved over the past few decades, the percentage of winning favorites at the national level has been slowly increasing from approximately 35% twenty years ago, to 39% last year. This is due to a variety of factors, including decreased field sizes and more sophisticated handicapping tools available with technology.
Last year, thoroughbred races on dirt had a favorite win rate of 45%, while the turf races had a favorite win rate of 37%. This holds true every year; the turf races have a lower percentage of winning favorites than the dirt races. Other categories of winning favorites were as follows: Sprints (44%), Routes (38%), Allowance/Stake (48%), Claiming (37%), Maiden Special Weight (45%), Maiden Claiming (20%), 2-year-olds (41%). Historically, maiden claiming races at Canterbury Park have had a high favorite win percentage, but due to the low volume of maiden claiming races run at Canterbury in 2025 (only 25), the sample size was too small to be reliable.
The Odds
Last year, heavy favorites that were bet down to 7/5 odds or lower won 124 races out of 238 attempts. That’s a 52%-win rate, and the ROI on win bets for these runners was $0.95 per dollar. Based on this data, the heavy favorites fared quite well in 2025, significantly beating the takeout in the win pool. The prior year was a different story, as the ROI on these heavy favorites was only $0.82 with a sample size of 240 races. I think 2025 will prove to be the exception rather than the rule regarding the success of these heavy favorites and I would look for betting opportunities elsewhere.
On the other end of the spectrum, there were only 9 winners at 20-1 odds or higher last year, but over 400 runners went to post at those high odds. Betting them all to win would have resulted in a 42% loss to the bankroll, not a great idea! Historically, Canterbury Park has not been a “longshot” paradise, and last year 79% of the thoroughbred races were won by horses at odds below 6-1. That has proven to be consistent year after year.
The Jockeys
The jockey colony will look quite different in 2026 than it did in 2025. Last year’s leading rider, Harry Hernandez, is currently riding at various tracks in Louisiana and is not expected back in 2026. Several familiar riders will be back, however, including the 2024 leading rider Luis Fuentes. Fuentes figures prominently in the jockey standings as he returns from injury. Other returning riders include Eduardo Gallardo, Jermaine Bridgemohan, Fausto Da Silva, Alonso Quinonez, Kelsi Harr, and Constantino Roman. These riders are all veterans of Canterbury Park for several years.
Another jockey to highlight is Manuel Americano. New to Canterbury Park in 2026, Manuel exits the recently concluded Turf Paradise meet as their top rider, winning the riding title by compiling 92 wins from 504 starts, nearly 30 wins ahead of the next jockey. He was heavily backed by the wagering public at Turf Paradise, as his ROI was only $0.61 on the dollar despite being leading rider. It will be interesting to see how much money he attracts at Canterbury Park and if he picks up where he left off at Turf Paradise. He is mounted in every race the first three days.
The Trainers
Jose Silva Jr. won the training title in 2025 by 4 victories over Tim Padilla and 6 victories over Mac Robertson. Any of these three would be no surprise to lead the trainer standings in 2026, but Mac Robertson is the logical favorite. He has some pretty consistent results over time, typically doing very well in the higher-level Allowance and Stakes races, especially for Minnesota breds. He often excels with his two-year-old runners. And he is equally sharp on both the dirt and the turf. Unfortunately, from a wagering perspective, his runners offer very little value on the tote board. His ROI in 2025 in most categories was hovering around 71-cents on the dollar, which is pretty typical for this well-known Canterbury Hall of Famer.
Tim Padilla had a remarkable year at Canterbury Park in 2025. He won with 28% of his starters and generated a 26% flat-bet profit for his supporters. There are generally a few trainers each meet that get the hot hand and win when the public doesn’t expect it. Padilla was definitely that guy in 2025.
Best of luck playing the 2026 live racing meet at Canterbury Park!
Bruce Meyer – ‘The Oracle’ – is seven-time Canterbury Park handicapper of the year. His Canterbury race selections can be found daily on X at @Oracle65