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RACE ANALYSIS

Thursday, July 24 ..... friday, july 25 .....saturday, july 26 ....sunday, july 27 

 

 

  
 
Thursday, July 24th
By Angela Hermann

Race 1

#3 My Gunbuddy
#5 Love My P A
#7 Knu Song
Wagers
$1 Daily Double ($8 total)
3,4,5,7/2,6
$.50 Trifecta ($4.50 total)
3,4,5/3,4,5,6/7
Many of the first race field has little to no experience, but the same group has also caused themselves trouble in their limited experience. While it’s easy to forgive for such a thing, it’s also not that far out of reach to think that the same sort of thing may happen again…
My Gunbuddy was plain old naughty in the starting gate in his first try at the races, but the son of Pistol Packin Perry was working well in preparation for such a meltdown. He and Ls Little Effort trade jockeys but maybe that will wake this one up and get him in a winning mood.
Paul Allen would be proud to see Love My P A in the mix, but this one is going to need to grow up a tad to get in the picture here. She was a bad actor in the paddock in her first start but can be forgiven with that experience behind her; the debut effort wasn’t all that bad and if she figures things out today she should make her presence felt. Her stablemate just to her inside isn’t one to discount either.
Knu Song has some ground to make up on that one (Ls Little Effort), but ran well enough in her next effort to think she should be in the conversation here. The shorter distance seemed to perk her up and now she gets even less ground to cover, and she’s dangerous as a result.


Race 2
#2 Tres My Tracks
#4 Mafoosa
#6 Southbound N Down
Wagers
$.50 Trifecta ($7 total)
2,6/4/All
$1 Exacta Box ($6 total)
2,4,6
Cut the price tag in half for the second race field, and mark them as winners. The non-2 lifetimes are for at the most part a new low price tag, but at least the distance agrees with most of them. 300 yards doesn’t leave much room for error at the break but perhaps class can trump all in the second…
Minnesotan Tres My Tracks exits stakes company to plunk down into this company. He wasn’t all that far behind in the Morehouse, but after 15 defeats stacked up next to the one win the barn’s decided it’s time to drop. His sole win did come here and he breaks well enough to handle shorter distances.
Mafoosa hails from Texas but is working on a similar record. He gets so close in defeat that he often takes a fair amount of money, but that length defeat two back at odds on forces hesitation. The price tag is indeed cut in half but even that may not do the trick with some making a similar move.
Off long rest Southbound N Down tries again for his second win. He’s seen a lot of trials and allowances mixed into his race record and this class relief surely will help. The main red flag is how much time he usually commands between sets of races but the connections simply win too much to be dismissed.
 

Race 3
#6 All About Brownie
#5 Chuckle of the Day
#1 Nevergetsold
Wagers
$.50 Pick Four ($36 total)
1,3,5,6/4,6,8/1,5,7/2,7
$.50 Trifecta Box ($12 total)
1,3,5,6
A divided field starts the pick four. While some are on a stark drop, a few have tasted defeat at the hands of the outside filly in this $6,250 non-three lifetime. Upsets aren’t common at this level but with the recent performances of the six assembled it’s very possible.
Mike Biehler’s All About Brownie should be very comfortable with her outside draw to go with the new stalking tactic she’s learned this year. She’s not the most clever selection to start the pick four but she should get a near-perfect setup with her tactical speed. Six furlongs may not be her favorite but she can handle it…
However, if you’re in search of an alternative look no further than one stall in. Chuckle of the Day hopefully doesn’t like synthetic racing, otherwise she has little in the way of an excuse for her last three. The hope is that she was sent up here with the specific goal of dirt sprinting, and that’s exactly what she’s lined up for here.
Nevergetsold is not a hard one to figure out. She can pass a horse or two if she’s really on her game, but she’d rather the field try to come catch her. Last time that didn’t work out….in fact, she’s faded badly in both Canterbury efforts after a decent second at Turf Paradise to begin her year. Be careful.


Race 4
#6 I Run to Daylight
#4 R K’s Afleet
#9 Fair Trade
Wagers
$.50 Trifecta ($ total)
4,6/4,6,8,9/4,5,6,8,9
$1 Exacta Box ($8 total)
4/5,6,8,9
The fourth is easily the most difficult of the day. No matter whether a favorite or a longshot takes home the gold, there’s digging to be done to get to them. The turf experience collectively is bad news, but somebody has to win and they’ll do so with a full house to either lead all the way or navigate carefully.
There shouldn’t be a shortage of sprinters trying for the early lead, but this is a do-over for a horse that showed early speed last time and blew it. I Run to Daylight is taking on open company but he has one of the better pedigrees for turf in here and can stay close. The price should at least be healthy. 
R K’s Afleet will most likely get bet hard in this spot. Yes, Churchill Downs turf horses are supposed to get bet when they come here but it’s not like he ran a huge race in Kentucky. Can blinkers turn things around? Backers sure have to hope so…hey, Butler sees fit to take the mount for a barn with some profitable angles in play here.
Though the turf experience firmly lies in his corner, it looks like a field again where Fair Trade can do what he does best. His late move is always a worry, but in his last five turf starts he’s managed to move into contention while not really threatening the winner. Seth Martinez attempts to turn the tide.


Race 5
#7 Caleb’s Comet
#5 Indy Racer
#1 Citron Kid
Wagers
$.10 Superfecta ($5.40 total)
1,5,7/1,2,5,7/1,2,5,7,8/1,2,5,7,8
$1 Exacta ($9 total)
1,5,7/1,2,5,7
It’s hard to dismiss anyone in the fifth over the turf. The pace is likely to be honest if not a bit on the quick side, but the turf hasn’t been kind to closers. With the morning line favorite sure to have a bulls eye on his back the task at hand is to find who can upset him.
Caleb’s Comet would most likely have been a lead-pipe-cinch in past years odds-wise, but this year he can be found at 4-1 morning line. He follows the pattern of many a Mac Robertson winner…..regardless of the form in Chicago, Shakopee is a haven for winners on the turf. He should be tough.
Indy Racer lures Ry Eikleberry off the speedster to his inside, Wild by Nature. Though these two like to go about things the same way the jock knows them both well and could benefit from that fact alone. If he can work out a stalking trip he may get first run on the closers at a decent number.
Of course, that favorite mentioned above will be looking for something similar. Citron Kid has used that exact strategy to two wins in a row….one after some stretch bumping. He drew off with authority last time but the possibility of him getting bottled up on the rail is very real. Don’t accept too short of a number.


Race 6
#2 Bing’s Magic
#7 Finlander
#1 Evert
 
Wagers
$.50 Trifecta ($15 total)
2,7/1,2,3,7/All
$1 Exacta Box ($6 total)
2/1,3,7
The finale in the early pick four is a rare condition for Minnesotans, but it’s drawn some nice ones. The task will not be an easy one for whoever captures their third win, but with a fairly balanced pace scenario perhaps one could steal away early and never look back…
The speediest of all may be Mac Robertson’s Bing’s Magic.  He’s used to dealing with a different brand of speed than is put in front of him today. The lack of early dueling could leave this one to get very brave on the front end, and that spells trouble for the rest.
The future is bright for Finlander, but can he tackle another bunch the way he did last time? The talent is most certainly there for the crafty Sweere barn, but these will present his hardest challenge to date. Drawing the outside shouldn’t hurt his chances at all with a chance to track the leaders. 
Should things melt down up front, Evert will be waiting in the wings under Eddie Martin Jr. His only semblance of speed has come around two turns, but he closed in for his second victory at Canterbury two back from far off the lead. He needs help up front but ‘Bing should take care of that – Hold him off to score.


Race 7
#11 Kips Hog Wild
#7 Master Demand
#1 Gallant Gent
 
Wagers
$.50 Pick Four ($24 total)
1,5,7,11/6,9/1,3,5/2,6
$1 Exacta Box ($8 total)
1/9,10,11,12
Looking for a class move will prove virtually pointless in the seventh, and many entered are familiar with bad trips and one another. Metropolitan Man holds the key to this race and Jake Olesiak will most likely ask him for early speed against these. That could ruin the party for the top selection but….
If any of these can handle an early duel, why isn’t it Kips Hog Wild? These connections don’t dip into the thoroughbred end of things very often but when they do they mean business, and this one wasn’t all that far behind the speedy Mr. Shorty last out. He likely needed a race off the bench and should be a tiger today.
David Van Winkle had to think the drop to this level would help Master Demand along to the winners’ circle – but it didn’t. He started his year well in Shakopee before settling for defeats by nearly identical margins in his last two. The style changed in those last couple as well but maybe Eikleberry will jolt him to life.
The rail horse is hoping things get out of hand up front, as Gallant Gent is at his best running down tiring front-runners. He’s checked in on the board every time Hawley’s saddled him, so why fix what isn’t broken? Carreno got a feel for him last time around and could be dangerous in the lane if a few things go his way. 


Race 8
#6 Lookin At Larry
#9 R U Joshin Me
#8 Jack’s Tiger
 
Wagers
$1 Pick Three ($20 total)
6,9/1,2,3,6,8/2,6
$.50 Trifecta($12 total)
6,9/2,5,6,9/1,2,5,6,8,9
Much of the race 8 field has been in for a tag at some point or another, but now they meet for a rich $35,000 purse.   Pace should be plentiful but the favorite morning-line has not done his best work sprinting in the past. It’s not calling for a huge upset, but he’s worth taking a shot against…
Lookin At Larry is a tricky one to figure out. When he’s rolling, he’s always close. The question is what tactic Juan Rivera will choose today, and getting face back in each of his last two fields has seemingly cost him. While he sat in second early in his only win that may be a tall order against this speedy group…
Drawn to the far outside is R U Joshin Me. He earned another shot at this level after running a gutsy third in his first. He adjusted well that day to stalking the pace and may be forced to do the same tonight with his post draw. He’s learned a lot in his transition from three to four years of age and the best may still be yet to come.   
That favorite mentioned above? Jack’s Tiger. He’s raced almost exclusively at a route of ground in the past year and it’s served him well. He’s only hit the board once at six furlongs, so why is he entered here? Surely he’d rather see more ground but he should be rolling at the end for a piece regardless.
 
Race 9
#5 Farmer’s Wife
#3 Dynamicflower
#1 Logan’s First Date
 
Wagers
$1 Daily Double ($6 total)
1,3,5/2,6
$1 Exacta Box ($6 total)
1,3,5
While a good amount of our route races at Canterbury are won wire-to-wire, that will be a difficult task for any filly attempting to do so in the 9th. She should expect a bit of pressure from a number of sources, but regardless the winner shouldn’t be too far behind at all call in the race.
While it would seem that Farmer’s Wife is going straight to the lead, she is capable of sitting just off as well. It appears more than anything that she’s found a level that she fits and the rest could take care of itself today. She may have wanted to ensure that another in this field didn’t have it easy up front….
That filly is not Dynamicflower, but she merits a little bit of a longshot look based on her third place finish a few races back. Consistency is not her calling card but getting off the turf and away from harder competition can only spell a better effort for her in this setting…..right? 
While it’s hard to ask a filly near the bottom of the class ladder to get three wins in a row, Logan’s First Date has a very good shot for the hat trick. She improved her time from her maiden win to her non-2 lifetime win but it was still somewhat pedestrian compared to race many in here exit. Are there another few lengths of improvement in there? Should be.
 
Race 10
#6 Lady Vronsky
#2 Tilted Lady
#1 Sweet G
 
Wagers
$.50 Trifecta Box ($12 total)
1,2,3,6
$1 Exacta ($3 total)
6/1,2,3
Does the formula for winning these types of races still exist in the Diodoro barn? This move from California to the bottom in Minnesota was unstoppable at the beginning of the meet but has cooled off considerably lately. They have a new one from Santa Anita with speed….that alone makes her live…. 
Lady Vronsky is said filly and she has obviously had her own set of issues. First and foremost, why did she not hit the races until she was four? She flashed more early speed as her career went on out west, but after three starts it was decided that she should skip town. She found a field not bursting at the seams with speedsters and could capitalize.
If she finds who she was in Phoenix, one of the gals keeping LV company should be Tilted Lady. She broke poorly in her first start since March and did nothing from there, so forgive her for that. Her best performances have been on the front end regardless of pressure, so watch for Ordaz to send her to the lead.   
Conversely, Sweet G likes to linger at the back of the pack early. Her three races at the level have all produced a similar margin of defeat but she did manage second last time. The previous two winners came right back to Victory Lane so why can’t she improve in this softer spot?
 
 
Friday, July 25th
By Angela Hermann

Race 1

#2 Justa Cartel
#6 Lil Miss Party Doll
#3 Bp Takem Away
Wagers
$1 Daily Double ($6 total)
2,3,6/4,6
$.10 Superfecta ($3.20 total)
2,6/2,3,6/All/2,3,5,6
The last time that a few of the opening race cast met, the start wiped out a couple of prime contenders. In fact, the start has been a problem for the majority of the field in recent times. That’s not to say the outcome would have been all that different had they got off cleanly….but at least they’d have been closer. Assuming everyone gets away fairly…
Justa Cartel was the favorite in a common race won by R Diva. The three inside runners all exit with a few lengths separating them, but this one took the worst of it. The Clay barn has had success with Stormy Smith this season, as he has been aboard for all of the barn’s 3 winners.  He deserves another chance.
While the top choice was wiped out by others, Lil Miss Party Doll sat still when the gate opened in her Derby Trial last time. She likes the track but the question is if she will do it again. She’s breezed out of the gate since that time and did so swiftly, so it appears whatever was bothering her that day may be solved.
While he helped make the mess for JC, that one’s stablemate Bp Takem Away fits underneath based on his record over the local surface. He is pretty consistent in the 330-350 yard range and can’t be left out of the exotics mix on that note alone.


Race 2
#6 Explosive Guns
#4 Jess Lika Blair
#5 Jess Another Reb
Wagers
$.50 Trifecta ($6 total)
6/3,4,5/All
$1 Exacta Box ($4 total)
6/4,5
The 870 races are always interesting and this one features two runners from the Miller stable. The middle of the gate knows quite a bit about each other, but the bookends are interesting due to their prices and relative unfamiliarity. The outside runner, especially, deserves another try at 870…
Explosive Guns has been facing off against classier animals this year but has tried them at shorter distances. It seems the more yardage he’s given the better, and his only “hook” race to date was better than it looked. The horses that defeated him are graded stakes types….these are not.
The key to a good race from Jess Lika Blair is getting him on the early lead. Jake Olesiak managed to do that last time after a wide journey in their first foray together, but he couldn’t hang on for more than the place spot. This distance and surface just work for him, and he can’t be left out.
A win continues to elude Jess Another Reb at Canterbury, but it’s not for lack of knocking on the door. The Pride trainee had to settle for third behind the dueling favorites last time but usually puts in an honest race and an effort worthy of a check. A win may be a tall task but use him underneath.
 

Race 3
#6 Ballistic Sue
#1 Boot N It
#5 Criminal Elegance
Wagers
$.50 Pick Four ($40.50 total)
6/All/All/2
$.50 Trifecta ($4 total)
6/1,5/All
The early pick four begins here, and many a ticket will single the morning line favorite Ballistic Sue. It makes sense based on the pace scenario likely to unfold in here but is she trustworthy even at this short distance? The thought is that her back class should carry her all the way home but upsetting her means big balloons in the pick four…
But upsetting Ballistic Sue is not going to be easy. Her strategy is simple: Get as far in front of the rest as she can and hope they can’t catch up. It’s worked many times in the past and this distance should suit her better than her first two efforts in Shakopee. Ry Eikleberry will take the reins over to try and get her to hang on.
Dickie Martinez’s Boot N It enters with her stablemate One More Palo in hopes that the cutback will bring her to life. She prefers coming from off the pace but went straight to the lead last time when tackling two turns. Only missing the board three times at the distance and at Canterbury makes her a player.
Chuck Turco entered two fillies but at least Criminal Elegance has hit the board here. Jordan Olesiak has ridden both of them in the past but opts for this daughter of Dehere….She may need some help up front but with Ballistic Sue in the mix nothing is out of the question with closers.
.


Race 4
#6 Go Go Jill
#8 A Fitzing Reward
#1 Dorn
Wagers
$.10 Superfecta Box ($12 total)
1,4,5,6,8
$1 Exacta Box ($8 total)
6/1,4,5,8
Seven of the fillies and mares in the fourth filled an exacta in their last start. They come from all over the place with such finishes though, and that’s the fun puzzle that is the fourth. None of them should be all that far apart on the board so take the exotic wagering money saved from the last race and dive in…
Go Go Jill has not missed a win or place check on this turf course in a loooong time. She can turn her hand to just about any trip placed in front of her with her tactical speed, and Lori Keith knows how to get this one to run. Her first two starts of the year would be good enough to win this.
She may still be 1-17, but A Fitzing Reward is the tepid morning line favorite off her strong string of seconds at the level. The issue is that now she’s been defeated twice in a row as the 2-1 favorite and the chances aren’t too bad that she’ll be there pricewise again. Can she make amends today?
Dorn took an interesting path to her maiden win but everything worked out in a big way last time. The Borrego filly powered away from maidens when a few tweaks were made: New distance, new surface, and new blinkers. She may not get the lone lead she did last time but she wasn’t exactly crawling around there last time – Catch her to score.


Race 5
#7 Unsaddled Glory
#2 Ragged Edge
#6 Evansville Runaway
Wagers
$1 Pick Three ($15 total)
7/2,4,5/1,3,4,7,8
$1 Exacta Box ($8 total)
7/1,2,3,6
The fifth is another contentious turf race, and the options are almost as vast as in the fourth. The problem in this spot is that there isn’t a bunch of devoted early speed in the mix. A few of the boys in the bunch have shown the speed necessary to nab the early lead in the past…
In fact, Unsaddled Glory won his only race over our grass on the front end the entire way. He put in an even fourth two back against a harder group of basically stakes horses but saw victory at this level in that wire-to-wire effort. While he doesn’t need the lead he may have needed the slight drop to this class.
Not many Minnesotans are enjoying a better summer over our grass than Ragged Edge. He and Martin Escobar have made over $100,000 on the local green and the Blairs Cove contributed to that total last time. He could not have been more impressive that day and two in a row is very much within his reach.
On the other hand, Evansville Runaway needs to find a fondness for this sod. He has a fine record over the surface elsewhere but mailed it in last time in his CBY debut. Forgive that one (he was off since November) and he’s another versatile type that could spring an upset with Quincy Hamilton at the helm.


Race 6
#2 Princeapallee
#4 Qahr
#5 Dreamin Grand
 
Wagers
$.50 Trifecta ($6 total)
2/5,6/All
$1 Exacta ($8 total)
2,4/2,4,5,7,8
There aren’t many clever ways to approach the sixth race. No one exiting the race won by Slickrock Road seemed to endure all that much trouble, so if they run the same way shouldn’t it be in relatively similar order? Or does one scrap that race altogether and find a new face entering the fray?
Princeapallee is getting better at this two turn thing race by race, and last time he was the short head runner up to Slickrock Road. He has the speed necessary to lead the field from start to finish if that’s what Stevens would like to do, but if faced with pressure the horse is happy to stalk. The price should be paltry but the chances are not.
The Bends barn has had a slow go of it thus far this summer, but they nearly pulled off their first win two back with Qahr. He took it to eventual winner Riseseastsetswest the whole way but came up a neck short. The faster pace last time no doubt took some starch out of this runner….expect better this time.
Dreamin Grand hasn’t taken to Canterbury the way his connections have hoped but he’ll stretch back out in distance in seek of win 2. He made a little move in the slop sprinting last time but wasn’t threatening anyone on the board. That was his first start for Wolochuk and this one could improve as well.


Race 7
#4 Royal Bluff
#3 Sophie’s Cupcake
#8 Brooke Academy
 
Wagers
$.50 Pick Four ($72 total)
3,4,7,8/3,6,7/3,4,5/1,2,4,5
$.10 Superfecta Box ($2.40 total)
3,4,7,8
It looked like Lady’s Edition may never escape this level but now that she’s departed for non-3 lifetime land, whose turn is it next? She beat the majority of this group on July 13th but as always, consistency is not the calling card of these ladies style or finish-wise. Things could set up a little differently today… 
Lady’s stablemate, Royal Bluff, was probably moving best late in the race that day. She has one of the toughest records to stomach in the race but the same thing applied to LE. The fields she attempted to tackle earlier in the year were just a little too difficult but she does well when around this price range.
While she has the speed to grab the lead (as she showed last time), don’t be surprised to see Sophie’s Cupcake abandon that tactic today. She scored sitting just off the pace two back and with the plentiful front runners entered she may benefit from that kind of trip. She simply tired last time but she went quickly early.
The filly to beat and the morning line favorite is Brooke Academy. She was among the speedsters duking it out early last time but she was the only one to hang on for a piece at the end. The Miller trainee is getting a little closer with each start this year and could get there with a little luck.


Race 8
#3 Moonshine Promise
#6 Simply Secret
#7 Hawkeye Honey
 
Wagers
$1 Exacta Box ($4 total)
3/6,7
$.50 Trifecta ($15 total)
3,6,7/3,6,7/All
Who wants the lead in the 8th? A good percentage of route races at this level are won by front runners and there are a few entered in this spot. A few also enter off a win at this very price tag against non-3 lifetimes. This should be a good betting race but demand a price on the filly of your choice.
Hopefully the morning line price of Moonshine Promise drifts up, as she stands a fine chance to rebound in this spot. She usually goes off at a very square number, and even when favored she’s above 2-1. The turf try last out proved fruitless but she can stalk anyone that goes bananas on the lead and has a great record on our dirt.
Don’t expect Simply Secret to be far behind at any point in this. This Silva filly looks to keep her win streak alive with the same price tag attached as the last two, but this time she’ll go long. No doubt she’ll keep herself in the race early, but knocking out this many conditions in a row at this level would be a feat. 
Hawkeye Honey took a little more time between her second and third career wins, but the same in similar fashion to the filly above. However, hers were both going one mile and seventy yards. She makes plenty of sense to get another one but the last time she won she regressed a bit next out.
 
Race 9
#4 Regards
#3 Smart Business
#5 Stormy Affair
 
Wagers
$1 Daily Double ($12 total)
3,4,5/1,2,4,5
$.50 Trifecta Box ($3 total)
3,4,5
A rather difficult to sort Maiden Special Weight starts the late double with a hefty purse attached for Minnesotans. A pair of full brothers is in here for different trainers, and one was a far more expensive purchase than the other. In between them is a hard luck gelding for a hard luck trainer….
Regards is no stranger to tough trips, and last time may have been the worst of them all. He made a bit of a close on the outside after pulling back to last but put in a much better effort two back. The Hanson barn got off to a slow start this summer but things seem to be turning and maybe this horse can contribute to that… 
The younger of the two brothers mentioned above is Smart Business. He has the work tab to be a winner first time around but comes from a stable that usually doesn’t see victory first time around. This one was working well as a two year old last year but opted to wait another year to debut. 
His older brother also waited a while to hit the starting gate. Stormy Affair debuted as a four year old but had some nice works leading into it. This crafty barn is willing to wait until a horse is ready to roll and surely another step forward is in the works in start number three.
 
Race 10
#2 Street Fighting
#4 Sassy Prance
#5 Vanderbilt Beach
 
Wagers
$.50 Trifecta ($6 total)
2,4/1,2,4,5/1,2,4,5
$1 Exacta Box ($12 total)
1,2,4,5
Changes, changes, changes. The entirety of the six pack in the last is changing up something: Class, distance, gender or rider. A pair comes from both the Bethke stable and from the Rhone stable, and their horses should be well bet in this maiden special weight to close the evening.
While it’s very tempting to take the filly against the males, something is interesting about the early speed of Street Fighting. It may not look like he has much based on his running lines but he shouldn’t be all that far off the pace in a race sort of lacking a front runner. He’s a reach but no one in here is a cinch.
The filly from the same camp is Sassy Prance, but she has some questions to answer. She seems to handle the dirt just fine but she steps up against males. Her style may play against her on the main track but she stands as the one to beat and she is a must on top of any tickets to conclude your night.
Vanderbilt Beach has taken many a swing and gets close but will try a tenth time to break his maiden. This will be his first try around two turns and the way that he runs at 6 ½ this may be right up his alley. The barn isn’t stellar with their first time routers but many of them aren’t in this small of a field.