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RACE ANALYSIS

Thursday, June 30......friday, july 1 ....Saturday, july 2 ... sunday, july 3 ....Monday, july 4

 

by brian kohn

 

 

 
 
FRIDAY, JULY 1
Race 1:
Mystical Styx ended his 2015 racing season at Prairie Meadows winning back-to-back races, including a $15,000 claiming price race. He finished 4th in a trial for the Gopher State Derby and then finished third in the Gopher State Derby behind heavy favorite Eagles Span. He drops to a claiming price for this race and cuts back in distance as well. He was victorious at the 300 yard and 330 yard distances last year.
Cokato Cartel will be making her second start of the meet. She was fractious in the gate in her first start this year June 9. She probably ended up using her energy even before the gates open and ended up 5th in that start, an allowance race. She did well towards the end of her 2015 campaign, finishing in the money in both the Cash Caravan and the Minnesota Derby. She will be removing blinkers for this start as well, so possibly this equipment change will be the key for her to do well today.
Dancin Corona will be making his second start since moving to the Jerry Livingston barn. He made a brief bid and finished 4th in an allowance race in his first start of this year. The runner-up in that race, My Dynasty Chick, would win an allowance race here June 24. He has raced well at this distance overall in his career, finishing in the money in five of ten lifetime starts.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #4 Mystical Styx
2nd Place:
#3 Cokato Cartel
3rd Place:
#6 Dancin Corona
Suggested Wagers:
$1 Trifecta ($4 total)
3, 4/3, 4/2, 6

$1 Double ($6 total)
3, 4/1, 4, 8
 
Race 2:
Sr Ur Fired will be making his second start of the meet. He improved his position and finished runner-up going 250 yards in a maiden race June 17. Last year in the 350 yard Minnesota Futurity, he was third behind winner Streak N Diamonds, who went on to qualify for the Gopher State Derby earlier this meet. The runner-up in that start, V Os Filo, won the Bob Morehouse Stakes here this past Sunday. 
Mountain Rake was impressive in his debut start, finishing runner-up by only a neck June 3. The third place finisher in that race, Eyra Hayes, would win a maiden race next time out June 17. That maiden race was at this same distance and will be tough to beat if he can duplicate that same effort here. 
Sixappeal has finished 4th in both starts this year since moving over to the Justin McKinley barn. In both races, he got off to a bad start which probably took him out of any chance to finish in the money. This has been a theme in his last three starts overall and it will be interesting to see what this one can do if he can get a better start today.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #1 Sr Ur Fired
2nd Place:
#4 Mountain Rake
3rd Place:
#8 Sixappeal
Suggested Wagers:
$1 Exacta Box ($6 total)
1, 4, 8

$1 Trifecta Box ($6 total)
1, 4, 8
Race 3:
U S Express will be making her debut start here. She has a several good workouts on the main track including her latest workout June 26. Trainer Karl Broberg wins at a 23% rate with debut runners and overall this meet has finished in the money in eight of ten starts.
R J’s Silver Syd is one of two runners in this race that has some racing experience. She raced here in a 3 ½ furlong Minnesota-bred maiden June 9. She had an awkward start in that race. With that race being so short, it is not surprising to see her finished 4th since there is not much distance to catch up on the rest of the field. Extending the distance to five furlongs should help her and trainer Nevada Litfin has won 31% of starts at this meet.  
Ari Gia is another runner making her first career start. She also has several good workouts on the main track on June 12 and a bullet workout June 26. Hopefully those are good signs that she is ready to go in her debut race today.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #6 U S Express
2nd Place:
#9 R J’s Silver Syd
3rd Place:
#5 Ari Gia
Suggested Wagers:
$1 Exacta Box ($6 total)
5, 6, 9

50-Cent Pick 3 ($6 total)
5, 6, 9/4, 5/4, 7
 
Race 4:
Tonkatini will be making her second start since April. She had a troubled trip last time when she had to go four wide and was forced out at the 3/16 pole. Although she had some trouble, she did finish third at this distance in a $12,500 maiden claiming race. Trainer David Van Winkle wins at a 33% rate with second starts after that layoff length and should race better dropping down in price.
Sofia’s Star ships in from Arlington where she finished in the money in one of three starts. That performance was in her debut race, a $15,000 maiden claiming event May 6. Last time, she had a bothered start and ended up finishing 4th as one of the top choices in a $7,500 claiming race. She may do a bit better here dropping down in price, but she does not have any published workouts on Canterbury’s main track. It will be interesting to see how she handles a natural dirt surface for the first time.
She’s a Fantasy has finished third twice in four career starts. One of those third place finishes was in a $25,000 stakes race for Nebraska-breds at Fonner Park in April. She adds blinkers for the first time today and will have one of Canterbury Park’s top jockey’s, Dean Butler, in the irons.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #4 Tonkatini
2nd Place:
#5 Sofia’s Star
3rd Place:
#2 She’s a Fantasy
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Exacta ($4 total)
4/2, 5

$1 Trifecta ($6 total)
4/2, 5, 6/2, 5, 6
 
Race 5:
Impromptu has won two of his last three starts, including a $12,500 claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs in April as the favorite and here last time in a $20,000 claiming race. He will drop down to the $10,000 claiming price for this start. There is not a lot of early pace here. Possibly he can be the one to set a slow pace and hold onto the lead for the entire 1 3/8 miles.
Sir Searsucker will be making his first start since May 8. He won three consecutive starts last year including a $10,000 claiming race here in August and a $16,000 starter allowance race on the turf at Indiana Downs. He was runner-up at this distance in April in the $27,000 Wildcat Handicap at Turf Paradise and overall has finished in the top two in all three starts at this distance. It looks like he runs his best when he just sitting off the pace and may get a great pace scenario here if Impromptu does falter down the stretch.
Iver With an E will be making his first start since being claimed for $7,500 to the Nevada Litfin barn last time on June 11. He has won two of his last five starts, both $8,000 claiming races on the turf. Although he has never raced at this distance, his closing style may benefit him well in this spot, especially if those on the lead or close to the lead start to flounder in the latter stages of the race.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #4 Impromptu
2nd Place:
#7 Sir Searsucker
3rd Place:
#8 Iver With an E
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Win, Place ($4 total)
4

$2 Exacta Box ($4 total)
4, 7
Race 6:
Pendulum will be making his third start of the meet. He finished third in both of his first two starts including in a $10,000 claiming race last time. He will also move from turf to dirt here. He raced well on the dirt earlier year, winning two $5,000 claiming races at Tampa Bay Downs. Last time he had to go seven wide, so possibly could get a better inside trip drawing the two post for this race.
Bet Your Socks will be making his third start of the meet and since moving to the Karl Broberg barn. Broberg has done well at this meet, finishing in the money in eight of ten starts with two victories. This one finished 5th in his first start for the new barn at this price. He was bumped up to the $10,000 price and finished third behind heavy favorite and dominant winner Shemp. He should benefit dropping back down in price for this start.
Charlie’s Deere has raced well as of late, winning two of his last three starts. He won here last time at this price in his first start since moving over to the Phil Hartman barn, a 40% winner at this meet with only ten starts. He has also already finished ahead of several of the runners entered here including August Day, Krafitg, and Fire Game.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #2 Pendulum
2nd Place:
#7 Bet Your Socks
3rd Place:
#3 Charlie’s Deere
Suggested Wagers:

$2 Exacta ($4 total)
2/3, 7

$1 Trifecta ($6 total)
2/3, 5, 7/3, 5, 7
Race 7:
The Great Casby will be making his first start of the year and since moving to the David Van Winkle barn. In his debut race last August, he finished third behind multiple 2016 allowance winner Cupid’s Delight. He moved onto facing winners in the Northern Lights Futurity and finished 8th. In his final start of the year, he shipped to Hawthorne and would finish 9th going long on the turf. He now cuts back in distance here and returns to dirt. Possibly David Van Winkle will get this one to show something closer to his debut race.
Drinkinatthebar has finished third in two of his four career starts. He was third last as the 2-1 favorite in a $20,000 claiming race. He was off to a slow start and flattened. The winner of that race, Bubba Looey, would finish runner-up as one of the top choices in a claiming race last Sunday. Dropping back down in price even further to $10,000 may be the key for this one to break through.
Trainer David Van Winkle also sends out Nick’s Silver Top for this race. He finished 4th in his debut race June 7 of last year. He returned after a long layoff to make his second career start and was the wagering favorite June 9 of this year. He finished a well beaten 9th in that maiden allowance event. He should improve with this being his second start after such a long layoff and dropping down to the $10,000 claiming price.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #8 The Great Casby
2nd Place:
#5 Drinkinatthebar
3rd Place:
#11 Nick’s Silver Top
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Win, Place ($4 total)
8

$1 Exacta Box ($6 total)
5, 8, 11
 
Race 8:
Proud Royal will be dropping in price from $20,000 to $6,250. He did not race well in either of his $20,000 claiming races, but faced tough competition. The winner of his May 30 start, Bellamy Run, would go on to win a claiming race here June 26 as the favorite. The runner-up, Mr. Arturo, won a claiming race June 25. In 2015, he was a maiden allowance winner and showed early speed in his next two starts after. He has not showed that speed since but with the price drop here I would not be surprised to see that early pace and possibly be alone on the lead.
Diablo Caballero will be making his third start of the meet and since moving over to the Robertino Diodoro barn. In his first start for Diodoro, he finished runner-up at this price and then would break through last time as the heavy favorite June 9. The runner-up in that race, Knightinmoderation, would win a maiden claiming race as the heavy favorite June 25.
Wood Machine was claimed four starts back for $6,250. After the claim, the new connections added blinkers. He has not raced as well with the added equipment, but did finish third last time, the best finish since the claim. Possibly removing the blinkers here will get this one back on track and show more of the form he had last year when he finished runner-up in a $20,000 claiming race.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #5 Proud Royal
2nd Place:
#6 Diablo Caballero
3rd Place:
#4 Wood Machine
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Exacta Box ($4 total)
5, 6

$1 Double ($6 total)
5, 6/2, 4, 5
 
Race 9:
Me Pay Bills will be making his second career start. He made his debut last time in a maiden allowance race on the turf. In that race, no runner could keep up with the winner as Dakota Native was victorious in impressive fashion. The runner-up there, Reigning Warrior, would win a maiden allowance race in his next start June 23. He drops back for a claiming price and does have a bullet workout on the main track June 25.
The Checotah Kid will be making his fourth start since shipping here from Oaklawn Park. He has improved in each start so far this meet including setting the pace but being no match for the winner in a runner-up performance. He was third two starts back to the aforementioned Diablo Caballero and will look that much better here depending on how Diablo Caballero fairs in Race 8.
Italian Ballet will be dropping from $20,000 to $6,250 for this start. His best start was his debut at the $5,000 claiming price at Turf Paradise. He finished runner-up in that race going 5 ½ furlongs. Not sure how this one will handle this distance as the last two starts, both outside of the money, were at 7 ½ furlongs on the turf. If he is not victorious here, he may prefer cutting back in distance for a later start.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #5 Me Pay Bills
2nd Place:
#2 Checotah Kid
3rd Place:
#4 Italian Ballet
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Win Place ($4 total)
5

$1 Exacta Box ($6 total)
2, 4, 5
 
July 2
Race 1:
Denim Dust will be making his third career start. He was a 30-1 longshot in his debut race at Remington and was third. He showed that was not a fluke performance as he raced here June 12 and finished runner-up going this same distance to heavy favorite Phoebes Hope. He draws the rail here which should help him avoid any trouble.
Eyes of a Winner finished runner-up in her debut race at Remington in April. She took a couple of months off and returned here June 16. She was favored there and finished 8th. She may have used up her energy before the race even started as she was fractious in the gate. If she is able to draw in here, I would expect a much better performance than she showed last time.
Ramblin On in Style was runner-up in her debut at this distance May 8 at Remington. She extended her distance to 300 yards and finishing 6th as one of the top choices here last time June 5. I would expect her to improve with the cut back in distance and will be conditioned by the leading quarter horse trainer, Jason Olmstead.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #1 Denim Dust
2nd Place:
#11 Eyes of a Winner
3rd Place:
#5 Ramblin On in Style
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Win, Place ($4 total)
1

$1 Double ($6 total)
1, 5, 11/2, 5
Race 2:
Shesa Shazoom will be making her third start of 2016. She finished 4th by a ½ length in her return start in May at Remington. She shipped here and was favored but weakened to 5th. I would expect her to bounce back dropping to $6,250 price. The winner of her latest race, This Doll Ca Run, finished runner-up in a trial for the Canterbury Park Derby June 25 before being disqualified to 5th.
Pepper Potts will be making her third start since taking a year off between races. She finished an even 4th in both of her starts since her return, including here last time June 12. The winner of that latest race, Long Gone Kool, was heavily favored and was not going to be caught. She also will be dropping to the $6,250 price so this could be the right spot for her show a bit more than she has in her first two starts this year.
Tr Rumbo will be making his third start this year. He finished 5th at this distance two starts back and improved to a runner-up performance last time dropping down for this same price. He led in that race but was no match for the winner, finishing runner-up by a head. He will be extending his distance back to 350 yards here and will be interesting to see if he can do as well as he did last time.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #5 Shesa Shazoom
2nd Place:
#2 Pepper Potts
3rd Place:
#8 Tr Rumbo
Suggested Wagers:
$1 Exacta Box ($6 total)
2, 5, 8

$1 Trifecta Box ($6 total)
2, 5, 8
Race 3:
He’s a Talker will be making his second career start. He finished runner-up last time going 3 ½ furlongs in a maiden allowance race June 10. He worked out well before that start, so he should keep improving off of that effort and trainer Nevada Litfin has won 31% of starts at this meet.
Dixie Native Ruler will be making his debut here. He has been working out since March at Turf Paradise and has been working out with some regularity since shipping to Canterbury Park. His workouts have improved, especially on June 5 which might be a sign that this one is ready for his debut start today.
Carosteiin was in the same debut race as He’s a Talker and did not race nearly as well finishing last of six runners there. With the race being so short, it is not surprising that he had a bit of trouble keeping up and should improve with this race being a bit longer at five furlongs. He also was working out well before that debut race so possibly will improve here with the experience.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #3 He’s a Talker
2nd Place:
#7 Dixie Native Ruler
3rd Place:
#6 Carosteiin
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Exacta ($4 total)
3/6, 7

$1 Double ($4 total)
3/1, 4, 6, 7
 
Race 4:
Sunshine Life will drop in price for this start from $20,000 to $12,500. She has finished in the money in two of her last four starts. She was victorious in a $25,000 maiden claiming race going six furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs. She then extended her distance to seven furlongs and one mile in her next two outings and finished outside the money. She cut back in distance last time to five furlongs and finished third by ½ length. This distance looks to be the right one for her.
Cabby Joshtin will be making her third start of the year. She will be dropping from allowance company in her last two races to claiming here. She did race well last year with a victory in an Indiana-bred maiden allowance at Indiana Downs and multiple in the money performances since. However, that form has not appeared this year in either of her two starts on the turf. She has a bullet workout on the main track since her latest start so possibly switching to the main track will help her show more here.
Zenergy will be making her first start since April 5 at Turf Paradise. She broke through in that race, winning by three lengths as the heavy favorite in a maiden claiming race. She draws the rail here and with her early speed she may be able to clear the field a bit and be the one to set the pace. Trainer Dan McFarlane wins at a 22% rate with returns after that layoff length.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #6 Sunshine Life
2nd Place:
#4 Cabby Joshtin
3rd Place:
#1 Zenergy
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Win, Place ($4 total)
6

$1 Exacta ($6 total)
6/ALL
Race 5:
Anzoo will be dropping in for a claiming price for the first time in her career.  She has improved in each start this year including finishing 4th last time. The winner of her latest race, Kenna Mae, would win an allowance race June 24 and the runner-up, Unbridled Mayhem, would win a maiden allowance race as the heavy favorite June 26.
She’s a Genius dropped to this price last time and finished a career best second on June 16 as the favorite. In that race, she finished ahead of several of the runners entered here today including Blinkersonletherip, Glitter’s Cupcake, and Dot’s Vow.   She also finished third last year in a $30,000 maiden claiming race, so being in for a claiming price seems to be the best chance for her to break through.
Stunning Cat is one of three entered here from the Robertino Diodoro barn. She has been working out on the main track here since May 3 and does have a couple of good workouts including May 30. Diodoro does win at a 25% rate with debut runners.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #2 Anzoo
2nd Place:
#13 She’s a Genius
3rd Place:
#9 Stunning Cat
Suggested Wagers:
$1 Exacta Box ($6 total)
2, 9, 13
$2 Double ($6 total)
2, 9, 13/8

Race 6:
Charlie Again has been racing well so for this year. He was 4th in his return start at Oaklawn Park in a $40,000 claiming race March 25. He took some time off between that start and racing here May 27. He also moved to the turf and was placed first in an allowance race after the winner, More On Tap, was disqualified. He dropped to this price last time and finished runner-up as the favorite and is being trained by one of the top conditioners at this meet, McLean Robertson.
Erlenmeyer has finished in the money in all three starts this year, including a victory in an Oklahoma-bred allowance race May 7 at Will Rogers Downs. This will be his first start this season, but has been working out well on the main track including a good workout June 12. It will be interesting to see if his 2016 continues to go well here with this being his first career race on the turf.
Cernobbio will be making his second start after a long layoff.  He was 5th in his return start, finishing behind Charlie Again and Bushrod. At one point in that race, he was sixteen lengths behind and had to go wide. He was able to be up for 5th there and may race even better here if he can be a bit closer to the pace.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #8 Charlie Again
2nd Place:
#4 Erlenmeyer
3rd Place:
#2 Cernobbio
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Exacta ($4 total)
8/2, 4

$1 Trifecta ($6 total)
8/2, 4, 5/2, 4, 5
 
Race 7:
Warren’s Nicholas will be making his fourth start since being claimed for $7,500 at Oaklawn Park in February to the Robertino Diodoro barn. He has been victorious in each start since, including as the favorite in both starter allowance races this meet. He will be going up in class here, but considering how well he has done in starter allowance races, he should be the one to beat.
Tiger D was claimed to the Bernell Rhone barn three starts back at Tampa Bay Downs for $16,000. He finished 4th in his first start since the claim as one of the top choices and third last time. Both of those starts were on the turf in allowance races. He will be adding blinkers here and moving to dirt. Possibly that combination might be what gets this one back on track. 
Copper Hill has finished in the money in each of his last six starts. During this streak, he did break through with a maiden allowance win April 9 at Hawthorne. He finished runner-up here May 21 and third at Prairie Meadows June 16. He may be the first one to take the lead down the stretch if expected early leader Sammy’s Mineshaft falters.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #5 Warren’s Nicholas
2nd Place:
#2 Tiger D
3rd Place:
#6 Copper Hill
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Exacta ($4 total)
5/2, 6

$2 Double ($6 total)
5/1, 3, 4
Race 8:
Pot Liquor may get overlooked here considering that he finished a well beaten 8th last time here June 11. However, he was bumped early and steadied at the ½. Not surprisingly, he fell far back after that trouble. He has raced well early in his career, finishing runner-up in both starts in maiden allowance races in Texas. I would expect a better performance here and his running style may be more suited to the longer distance today.
Rarin to Go will be making his third start this season. He was third as the favorite in his first start of the meet May 29. That race was moved from the turf the main track. He was able to race on the turf last time and did cross the wire as the winner, but was disqualified to third. He did finish ahead of Bluffs Edge before the disqualification and could be tough to beat if he gets a better trip here.
Lowen Warrior will be making his 4th career start. He ships here from Churchill Downs where he was been far behind the winner in each of his last two starts on the turf. Joe Sharp has been spotting his horses well at this meet, winning at 30% rate. Sharp may see this as a good spot for this one to show more than he has in any of his previous races.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #4 Pot Liquor
2nd Place:
#3 Rarin to Go
3rd Place:
#1 Lowen Warrior
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Win, Place ($4 total)
4

$1 Exacta ($4 total)
4/1, 3, 5, 9
 
Race 9:
Faith Rising ships here from Prairie Meadows. She has raced well in each of her last two starts including finishing runner-up by a nose at this price June 10. She was also runner-up last time by a length as the favorite at the $5,000 price. She has finished in the top two in both starts on the main track here last season, including a victory at the $10,000 claiming price. 
Legends in Time will be making her second start after a long layoff. She won two of her final four starts before the layoff, both at the $5,000 claiming price at Hawthorne. She probably needed that race and may be better today than she was May 27. She was also entered here Thursday in a $6,250 claiming race, but this could be a more favorable spot for her to race well.
Queen Otaheite has raced well since returning to the Larry Donlin barn, finishing in the money in four of her last five starts. She was victorious in a $5,000 claiming race in April at Fonner Park. She dropped down to $4,000 price for her latest two races here and finished third both times. She showed early speed last time and could be the one to catch if the other expected early leader, Smokem Bull, does not get out front.
Race Selections:
1st Place: #6 Faith Rising
2nd Place:
#3 Legends in Time
3rd Place:
#1 Queen Otaheite
Suggested Wagers:
$2 Exacta ($4 total)
6/1, 3

$1 Trifecta ($6 total)
6/1, 3, 7/1, 3, 7